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EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 18-08-2005, 21:44
standing after yesterdays matches:
	Assoziation	'06	Points	Matches	Coeff. total
1 Greece 1,667 33 17 1,941
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 Czech Republic 2,625 43 16 2,688
3 England 2,667 36 14 2,571
4 Netherlands 2,750 41 16 2,563
5 Portugal 2,500 20 8 2,500
6 France 1,667 34 14 2,429
7 Croatia 2,667 32 14 2,286
------------------------------------------------------------
8 Sweden - 32 14 2,286
9 Germany 0,000 18 8 2,250
10 Italy 2,167 30 14 2,143
11 Poland 2,571 31 15 2,067
12 Turkey 1,778 35 17 2,059
13 Spain 1,857 30 15 2,000
14 Ukraine 2,556 33 17 1,941
------------------------------------------------------------
15 Romania 1,900 33 18 1,833
16 Russia 1,875 29 16 1,813
17 Bulgaria 1,333 25 14 1,786
18 Latvia 1,556 30 17 1,765
19 Serbia & Mont. 2,000 24 14 1,714
20 Belgium 1,333 24 14 1,714
21 Denmark 1,500 27 16 1,688
------------------------------------------------------------
22 Slovakia 2,000 28 17 1,647
23 Norway 1,500 23 14 1,643
24 Slovenia 1,500 23 14 1,643
25 Ireland 1,857 24 15 1,600
26 Hungary 1,667 21 14 1,500
27 Bosnia-Herz. 1,167 20 14 1,429
28 Scotland 1,000 20 14 1,429
------------------------------------------------------------
29 Finland 1,500 22 16 1,375
30 Lithuania 1,500 19 14 1,357
31 Israel 1,571 20 15 1,333
32 Iceland 0,571 17 15 1,133
33 Estonia 1,222 19 17 1,118
34 Wales 0,333 15 14 1,071
35 Albania 1,000 17 17 1,000
------------------------------------------------------------
36 Georgia 1,000 15 16 0,938
37 Cyprus 0,571 12 15 0,800
38 Macedonia 0,800 14 18 0,778
39 Belarus 1,167 10 14 0,714
40 Armenia 0,444 11 17 0,647
41 Moldova 0,333 8 14 0,571
42 North. Ireland 0,500 6 14 0,429
------------------------------------------------------------
43 Azerbaijan 0,286 6 15 0,400
44 Liechtenstein 0,556 6 17 0,353
45 Andorra 0,444 4 17 0,235
46 Faroe Islands 0,143 2 15 0,133
47 Malta 0,143 2 15 0,133
48 Kazakhstan 0,000 0 8 0,000
49 San Marino 0,000 0 15 0,000
50 Luxembourg 0,000 0 16 0,000

no big changes (see old topic, Slovakia fell behind Denmark into pot 4, Russia almost lost his chances to advance to pot 2.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi
Date: 19-08-2005, 15:01
Thanks!

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Lio
Date: 19-08-2005, 15:16
sorry but the points system is the same as european cup (with clubs)?

2 pt for a win ....?

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Michele
Date: 19-08-2005, 15:24
The seedings are based on the actual groups as well as the groups from EURO2004 qualification. So it's 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw and then the total number of points is divided with the total number of games to give a number between 0-3. And in this ranking teams can both increase their number of points or lose points according to results. For all teams in the top 5 pots, a draw or loss will decrease the ranking while a win will increase the ranking.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 19-08-2005, 20:55
thx Michele, well explained!

I just spotted one little mistake in my table, the column '06 should show for Sweden a coefficient of 2.500 (not -). The reason I included this column is that it is used as tiebreaker for equal total coefficients (see article 6.03 in the Regulations of EURO 2008).
Normally UEFA uses the same system for the seeding of the World Cup Qualifiers. Interesting is, they didn't do it last time, at least not regarding the tiebreaker. The pots for the seeding of the WC qualifiers 2006 should have looked like this:
	G Pts gd	'02	G Pts gd	'04	G Pts gdt	Tot
(Pot 2)
Bulgaria 10 17 -1 1,700 8 17 9 2,125 18 34 8 1,889
Slovenia 10 20 8 2,000 8 14 3 1,750 18 34 11 1,889
------------
Poland 10 21 10 2,100 8 13 4 1,625 18 34 14 1,889
....
(Pot 3)
....
Slovakia 10 17 7 1,700 8 10 2 1,250 18 27 9 1,500
Ukraine 10 17 5 1,700 8 10 1 1,250 18 27 6 1,500
------------
Austria 8 15 2 1,875 8 9 -2 1,125 16 24 0 1,500
(Pot 4)
But in the draw actually Poland was in pot 2 instead of Bulgaria and Austria in pot 3 instead of Ukraine. Calculating various possibilities, the only explanation I could find is that they used the 2002 qualifiers as tiebreaker and not the 'most recent' 2004 results as usual. I don't know the reason, probably just one of the numerous mistakes UEFA made when calculating coefficients and allocating seedings, but maybe FIFA wanted it that way (using 'their' tournament as tiebreaker).
Maybe people of the countries concerned remember if there was any rumour about that draw (December 2003).

Greetings Flob

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: nitsansh
Date: 20-08-2005, 03:45
In Poland's case they might have used goals difference as tie-breaker, but that doesn't explain Austria...

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: nitsansh
Date: 20-08-2005, 04:19
Do these figures include play off matches???

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Edgar
Date: 20-08-2005, 09:49
No. Playoff matches do not count.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 20-08-2005, 16:39
as Edgar said, playoff matches do not count, so they are not included.
(but it would make no difference, Poland and Bulgaria had no playoff matches in 2002 and 2004 qualifiers, Austria lost both games in 2002 against Turkey, Ukraine draw one against Germany).

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: nitsansh
Date: 20-08-2005, 17:36
I don't see any reference in the rules that play off matches are not included. Where did you get that from?

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 20-08-2005, 17:57
It's indeed not clear from the rules, but they haven't been included in previous draws, so it would be logical that they aren't included now.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 20-08-2005, 18:18
nitsansh,
You are right, this is not explicitely stated in the regulations, but UEFA uses this system since the 2000 qualifiers and published the coefficients f.e. before the draw for 2004 (sorry, can't find that document anymore, but see this link) and playoff matches never were included.
AFAIK, they didn't publish the coefficients before the WC 2006 draw, just the pots and these were according to that system despite of the tiebreaker rule.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: AnorthosisFC
Date: 23-08-2005, 21:52
Why Greece is on TOP?! Does Greece has to give play off games to qualify or not because it's the European Champions? If they qualify the will be in the group with the strongs? Please someone explain!

Rangers - Anorthosis = 0-2

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 23-08-2005, 22:52
Greece has to play qualification, but as titleholder they are top seed disregarding their coefficient.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 04-09-2005, 00:36
standings after 2005-09-03:
	Assoziation	Coeff. 06	Points	Matches	Coeff. total
1 Greece 1,667 33 17 1,941
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 England 2,714 39 15 2,600
3 Netherlands 2,778 44 17 2,588
4 Portugal 2,556 23 9 2,556
5 Czech Republic 2,333 43 17 2,529
6 France 1,857 37 15 2,467
7 Croatia 2,714 35 15 2,333
------------------------------------------------------------
8 Sweden 2,571 35 15 2,333
9 Germany 0,000 18 8 2,250
10 Poland 2,625 34 16 2,125
11 Italy 2,000 31 15 2,067
12 Turkey 1,700 36 18 2,000
13 Spain 1,857 30 15 2,000
14 Romania 2,000 36 19 1,895
------------------------------------------------------------
15 Ukraine 2,400 34 18 1,889
16 Russia 2,000 32 17 1,882
17 Serbia & Mont. 2,143 27 15 1,800
18 Norway 1,714 26 15 1,733
19 Latvia 1,400 30 18 1,667
20 Bulgaria 1,143 25 15 1,667
21 Slovakia 2,000 28 17 1,647
------------------------------------------------------------
22 Denmark 1,444 28 17 1,647
23 Ireland 1,857 24 15 1,600
24 Hungary 1,857 24 15 1,600
25 Belgium 1,143 24 15 1,600
26 Bosnia-Herz. 1,429 23 15 1,533
27 Slovenia 1,286 23 15 1,533
28 Scotland 1,000 21 15 1,400
------------------------------------------------------------
29 Finland 1,444 23 17 1,353
30 Israel 1,500 21 16 1,313
31 Lithuania 1,286 19 15 1,267
32 Estonia 1,400 22 18 1,222
33 Albania 1,200 20 18 1,111
34 Iceland 0,500 17 16 1,063
35 Wales 0,286 15 15 1,000
------------------------------------------------------------
36 Georgia 1,000 16 17 0,941
37 Cyprus 0,571 12 15 0,800
38 Macedonia 0,800 14 18 0,778
39 Moldova 0,714 11 15 0,733
40 Belarus 1,000 10 15 0,667
41 Armenia 0,400 11 18 0,611
42 North. Ireland 0,857 9 15 0,600
------------------------------------------------------------
43 Azerbaijan 0,250 6 16 0,375
44 Liechtenstein 0,500 6 18 0,333
45 Andorra 0,500 5 18 0,278
46 Faroe Islands 0,125 2 16 0,125
47 Malta 0,125 2 16 0,125
48 Kazakhstan 0,000 0 9 0,000
49 San Marino 0,000 0 15 0,000
50 Luxembourg 0,000 0 17 0,000

Changes:
Italy lost it's chance to advance to pot 1.
Romania in pot 2 instead of Ukraine.
Norway in pot 3 instead of Belgium.

detailed analysis after wednesday matches ...

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: sampfan83
Date: 04-09-2005, 00:41
Edited by: sampfan83
at: 04-09-2005, 01:18
that's the way I estimated the seedings for the pots of EURO 2008 draw. I hope I have no mistakes:

Assoziation '06 Points Matches Coeff. total
1 Greece 1,667 33 17 1,941
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 England 2,714 39 15 2,600
3 Netherlands 2,778 44 17 2,588
4 Portugal 2,556 23 9 2,556
5 Czech Republic 2,333 43 17 2,529
6 France 1,857 37 15 2,467
7 Croatia 2,714 35 15 2,333
------------------------------------------------------------
8 Sweden 2,571 35 15 2,333
9 Germany 0,000 18 8 2,250
10 Poland 2,625 34 16 2,125
11 Italy 2,000 31 15 2,067
12 Spain 1,857 30 15 2,000
13 Turkey 1,700 36 18 2,000
14 Romania 2,000 36 19 1,895
------------------------------------------------------------
15 Ukraine 2,400 34 18 1,889
16 Russia 2,000 32 17 1,882
17 Serbia & Mont. 2,143 27 15 1,800
18 Norway 1,714 26 15 1,733
19 Latvia 1,400 30 18 1,667
20 Bulgaria 1,143 25 15 1,667
21 Slovakia 2,000 28 17 1,647
------------------------------------------------------------
22 Denmark 1,444 28 17 1,647
23 Ireland 1,857 24 15 1,600
24 Hungary 1,857 24 15 1,600
25 Belgium 1,143 24 15 1,600
26 Bosnia-Herz. 1,429 23 15 1,533
27 Slovenia 1,286 23 15 1,533
28 Scotland 1,000 21 15 1,400
------------------------------------------------------------
29 Finland 1,444 23 17 1,353
30 Israel 1,500 21 16 1,313
31 Lithuania 1,286 19 15 1,267
32 Estonia 1,400 22 18 1,222
33 Albania 1,200 20 18 1,111
34 Iceland 0,500 17 16 1,063
35 Wales 0,286 15 15 1,000
------------------------------------------------------------
36 Georgia 1,000 16 17 0,941
37 Cyprus 0,571 12 15 0,800
38 Macedonia 0,800 14 18 0,778
39 Moldova 0,714 11 15 0,733
40 Belarus 1,000 10 15 0,667
41 Armenia 0,400 11 18 0,611
42 North. Ireland 0,857 9 15 0,600
------------------------------------------------------------
43 Azerbaijan 0,250 6 16 0,375
44 Liechtenstein 0,500 6 18 0,333
45 Andorra 0,500 5 18 0,278
46 Faroe Islands 0,125 2 16 0,125
46 Malta 0,125 2 16 0,125
48 Kazakhstan 0,000 0 8 0,000
49 San Marino 0,000 0 15 0,000
50 Luxembourg 0,000 0 16 0,000

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: sampfan83
Date: 04-09-2005, 00:54
Edited by: sampfan83
at: 04-09-2005, 01:25
hm - I am sorry - I didn't see that someone has already uploaded these...

nice to see I have no mistake though

we have a small difference still - I think Spain is in front of turkey because of higher '06 coefficient..

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: nitsansh
Date: 05-09-2005, 02:42
I wonder if 2 wins over Faroe Islands will be sufficient to lift Israel to pot #4... that will give us 27 pts from 18 matches for a coefficient of 1.5, which is currently higher than Scotland in 28th place... the Scots have tough away mathes in Norway and Slovenia and expect to win at home to Belarus, so I don't fancy their chances to take 7 pts and get to total of 28 pts (If we are level with them on 27 pts, we have the edge).
In fact, the match between Slovenia and Scotland on Oct 12 could decide which of them is in pot 4. The Slovenes should earlier play away to Italy and Moldova, so if for example Slovenia gets 1 point from those matches and Scotland gets 3, they will be level on 24 pts going to that encounter. The loser will then be relegated to pot 5.
Belgium and Bosnia should both play at home to lowly San Marino and away to Lithuania. 4 pts in these matches would keep them in pot 4.
Hungary is also vulnerable: They play the 2 group leaders Sweden and Croatia at home and away to Bulgaria, and might lose all 3 matches and relegate to pot 5.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III) + Fixtures
Author: nitsansh
Date: 05-09-2005, 04:06
standings after 2005-09-03:
						Coef.	Remaining matches
Assoziation Coef 06 Points Matches total 7/9 8/10 12/10
1 Greece 1,667 33 17 1,941 KZK (A) DEN (A) GEO (H)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 England 2,714 39 15 2,600 NIR (A) AUT (H) POL (H)
3 Netherlands 2,778 44 17 2,588 AND (H) CZE (A) MKD (H)
4 Portugal 2,556 23 9 2,556 RUS (A) LIE (H) LAT (H)
5 Czech Republic 2,333 43 17 2,529 ARM (H) NED (H) FIN (A)
6 France 1,857 37 15 2,467 IRL (A) SUI (A) CYP (H)
7 Croatia 2,714 35 15 2,333 MLT (A) SWE (H) HUN (A)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Sweden 2,571 35 15 2,333 HUN (A) CRO (A) ISL (H)
9 Germany 0,000 18 8 2,250
10 Poland 2,625 34 16 2,125 WAL (H) ENG (A)
11 Italy 2,000 31 15 2,067 BLR (A) SLO (H) MLD (H)
12 Spain 1,857 30 15 2,000 SCG (H) BEL (A) SMR (A)
13 Turkey 1,700 36 18 2,000 UKR (A) ALB (A)
14 Romania 2,000 36 19 1,895 FIN (A)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 Ukraine 2,400 34 18 1,889 TUR (H) ALB (H)
16 Russia 2,000 32 17 1,882 POR (H) LUX (H) SVK (A)
17 Serbia & Mont. 2,143 27 15 1,800 ESP (A) LIT (A) BIH (H)
18 Norway 1,714 26 15 1,733 SCO (H) MLD (H) BLR (A)
19 Latvia 1,400 30 18 1,667 SVK (H) POR (A)
20 Bulgaria 1,143 25 15 1,667 ISL (H) HUN (H) MLT (A)
21 Slovakia 2,000 28 17 1,647 LAT (A) EST (H) RUS (H)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
22 Denmark 1,444 28 17 1,647 GEO (H) GRE (H) KZK (A)
23 Ireland 1,857 24 15 1,600 FRA (H) CYP (A) SUI (H)
24 Hungary 1,857 24 15 1,600 SWE (H) BUL (A) CRO (H)
25 Belgium 1,143 24 15 1,600 SMR (H) ESP (H) LIT (A)
26 Bosnia-Herz. 1,429 23 15 1,533 LIT (A) SMR (H) SCG (A)
27 Slovenia 1,286 23 15 1,533 MLD (A) ITA (A) SCO (H)
28 Scotland 1,000 21 15 1,400 NOR (A) BLR (H) SLO (A)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
29 Finland 1,444 23 17 1,353 MKD (H) ROM (H) CZE (H)
30 Israel 1,500 21 16 1,313 FAR (A) FAR (H)
31 Lithuania 1,286 19 15 1,267 BIH (H) SCG (H) BEL (H)
32 Estonia 1,400 22 18 1,222 SVK (A) LUX (A)
33 Albania 1,200 20 18 1,111 UKR (A) TUR (H)
34 Iceland 0,500 17 16 1,063 BUL (A) SWE (A)
35 Wales 0,286 15 15 1,000 POL (A) NIR (A) AZE (H)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
36 Georgia 1,000 16 17 0,941 DEN (A) KZK (H) GRE (A)
37 Cyprus 0,571 12 15 0,800 SUI (H) IRL (H) FRA (A)
38 Macedonia 0,800 14 18 0,778 FIN (A) NED (A)
39 Moldova 0,714 11 15 0,733 SLO (H) NOR (A) ITA (A)
40 Belarus 1,000 10 15 0,667 ITA (H) SCO (A) NOR (H)
41 Armenia 0,400 11 18 0,611 CZE (A) AND (A)
42 North. Ireland 0,857 9 15 0,600 ENG (H) WAL (H) AUT (A)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
43 Azerbaijan 0,250 6 16 0,375 AUT (H) WAL (A)
44 Liechtenstein 0,500 6 18 0,333 LUX (H) POR (A)
45 Andorra 0,500 5 18 0,278 NED (A) ARM (H)
46 Faroe Islands 0,125 2 16 0,125 ISR (H) ISR (A)
47 Malta 0,125 2 16 0,125 CRO (H) BUL (H)
48 Kazakhstan 0,000 0 9 0,000 GRE (H) GEO (A) DEN (H)
49 San Marino 0,000 0 15 0,000 BEL (A) BIH (A) ESP (H)
50 Luxembourg 0,000 0 17 0,000 LIE (A) RUS (A) EST (H)

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: MartinW
Date: 05-09-2005, 04:32
Does anybody have the table comparing the 2nd placed teams in each group to see who will qualify as best two runners-up?

Can anyone confirm the regulations on how to correct for the groups having different numbers of teams? Should you ignore the results against 7th placed teams (i.e. only results against 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th will count)?

It seems that Czech Rep loss against Romania could be costly for the best 2nd place qualification. I guess that now it seems Sweden/Croatia and England/Poland should be the favourites for taking the automatic qualification places.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: edieseb
Date: 05-09-2005, 04:59
Nice going for Romania with the win against the Czech Rep.

IF they win the last match, against Finland, they'll stay in the pot 2, almost for sure: that is, of course, if Russia doesn't get more than 6pts in their last 3 games (POR(H) LUX (H) SVK (A)), and Serbia & Mont. 9pts from theirs (ESP (A) LIT (A) BIH (H)).

But first we have to win in Finland.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 05-09-2005, 11:50
Edited by: Forza-AZ
at: 05-09-2005, 11:50
@MartinW

Table of 2nd placed teams after saturdays results:

1.England 7-19 (14- 3)
2.Sweden 7-18 (26- 2)
----------------------------------
3.Romania 9-18 (15- 9)
4.Spain 7-13 (10- 2)
5.Ireland 7-13 (11- 4)
6.Slovakia 7-12 (15- 6)
7.Norway 7-12 (9- 5)
8.Turkey 8-11 (11- 9)

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: dinamozagreb
Date: 05-09-2005, 12:23
Croatia/Sweden and Poland/England are almost sure for 2 best second.

It's unreal to include Romania as 2nd cz they have 2 games more...and England has a game less than Poland also Greece has game in hand in comparison to Turkey...So ir we include all that we have:

1.Poland 21/8(1.England 22/8)
2.Sweden 18/7(1.Croatia 19/7)
3.Czech 15/7
4.Spain 13/7
5.Ireland 13/7
6.Slovakia 12/7
7.Norway 12/7
8.Greece 12/8

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: smc
Date: 05-09-2005, 12:55
Edited by: smc
at: 05-09-2005, 13:16
Write me please, flob or nitsansh, Where I can see and read about this table of seedings??? my E-mail: smcalexandr@ukr.net

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: SHEV
Date: 05-09-2005, 13:17
I think Czech have good chances because whoever will take 2-nd places in Poland/England and Croatia/Sweden groups - they will have to lose points so Czech have this invisble bonus and it's slightly improve their situation.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 05-09-2005, 13:48
smc,
you can download the regulations for the EURO 2008 here. The system is described in articles 6.01 to 6.03.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Ricardo
Date: 05-09-2005, 13:54
Czech indeed still has a reasonable chance. Because they now have 2 loses, compared to Sweden and Poland 1. But Czech might very well win from Holland(they are not that good and also don't need the win anymore for qualification). And Poland and Sweden lost both their homegames against their opponent(England/Croatia), so away will be even more difficult to win.
Than you have 3 teams with 2 loses.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: spoonman
Date: 05-09-2005, 13:58
Edited by: spoonman
at: 05-09-2005, 14:04
I see that we're going to have 6 groups of 7 and one group of 8. Everybody complains about the tight match calendar, and now they put EIGHT teams into one group - what kind of nonsense is that? This means FOURTEEN qualifying matches within 16 months for the teams in that group and TWELVE for erverybody else.

Can anybody explain to me why they didn't do it with 10 groups of 5?

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: krdeluxe
Date: 05-09-2005, 14:35
With 6 groups of 7 and 1 of 8 countries there are no playoff (thats 2 games) and no difficulties with best number 2. So every team plays 2 games more (12) then with groups of 5 (8 + 2 playoffs = 10). I think it not bad, because less friendly games. For Holland I like a qualifying game against Andorra more then a friendly game against Germany. So I think groups of 7 are good.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: spoonman
Date: 05-09-2005, 14:46
But even for the current World Cup qualifying round they had to invent the strange rule that England, France, and Spain were not eligible for groups of 7 because they had so many domestic games. Now they will definitely have to go into a group of 7.

And imagine what those countries will say that have to play in the group of 8. They'll complain about too many matches and "distortion of competition"...

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: iwan
Date: 05-09-2005, 15:22
Yes, I can agree with spoonman!!!
7 Pools of 7 ore 8, than they'll must play many more matches than now!!
I prefer too 10 pools of 5 in the qalification who'll play yhe same system like they did by the ECT in 2004!! Only than the 2 lowest ranked winners off the play-offs must play one play-off more against each-otter for one spot.

And what to do in 2010, it's not sure ore Europe has the right for 12,13,14 ore 15 spots!! And/ore one European team must play a play-off
against a team off an otter continent,then there will be very more possiblities with 10 pools of 5 that with 7 pools of 7 ore 8!!!

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: LevskiFan
Date: 05-09-2005, 18:20
hey...if Bulgaria wins their remaining matches...how many points will they gain..and what position would they take?
Thx in advance....

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: sampfan83
Date: 05-09-2005, 19:05
levski fan,

Bulgaria currently has 25 points in 15 matches. 3 wins, which are the most probable outcome of the last 3 matches, will add up to 34 points out of 18 matches. Thus, the coefficient will be 1.889.

however, your second question is hard to answer - which will be Bulgaria's position at the end? Because all the other teams will play matches as well, right.

I would bet 10 dollars for each dollar someone else will put on Bulgaria not being in the third pot after all.

We will be in the third pot almost for sure - and the exact position doesn't really matter that much...

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 08-09-2005, 03:24
standings after tonights matches:
	Assoziation	'06	Points	Matches	Coeff. total

1 Greece 1,800 36 18 2,000
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 Netherlands 2,800 47 18 2,611
3 Czech Republic 2,400 46 18 2,556
4 France 2,000 40 16 2,500
5 England 2,375 39 16 2,438
6 Portugal 2,400 24 10 2,400
7 Sweden 2,625 38 16 2,375
------------------------------------------------------------
8 Croatia 2,500 36 16 2,250
9 Germany 0,000 18 8 2,250
10 Poland 2,667 37 17 2,176
11 Italy 2,125 34 16 2,125
12 Turkey 1,818 39 19 2,053
13 Spain 1,750 31 16 1,938
14 Romania 2,000 36 19 1,895
------------------------------------------------------------
15 Russia 1,900 33 18 1,833
16 Ukraine 2,182 34 19 1,789
17 Serbia & Mont. 2,000 28 16 1,750
18 Bulgaria 1,375 28 16 1,750
19 Denmark 1,600 31 18 1,722
20 Belgium 1,375 27 16 1,688
21 Latvia 1,364 31 19 1,632
------------------------------------------------------------
22 Bosnia-Herz. 1,625 26 16 1,625
23 Norway 1,500 26 16 1,625
24 Slovenia 1,500 26 16 1,625
25 Slovakia 1,900 29 18 1,611
26 Ireland 1,625 24 16 1,500
27 Hungary 1,625 24 16 1,500
28 Scotland 1,250 24 16 1,500
------------------------------------------------------------
29 Finland 1,600 26 18 1,444
30 Israel 1,667 24 17 1,412
31 Estonia 1,400 22 18 1,222
32 Lithuania 1,125 19 16 1,188
33 Albania 1,200 20 18 1,111
34 Iceland 0,444 17 17 1,000
35 Wales 0,250 15 16 0,938
------------------------------------------------------------
36 Georgia 0,900 16 18 0,889
37 North. Ireland 1,125 12 16 0,750
38 Cyprus 0,500 12 16 0,750
39 Macedonia 0,727 14 19 0,737
40 Moldova 0,625 11 16 0,688
41 Belarus 0,875 10 16 0,625
42 Armenia 0,364 11 19 0,579
------------------------------------------------------------
43 Liechtenstein 0,727 9 19 0,474
44 Azerbaijan 0,333 7 17 0,412
45 Andorra 0,455 5 19 0,263
46 Malta 0,222 3 17 0,176
47 Faroe Islands 0,111 2 17 0,118
48 Kazakhstan 0,000 0 10 0,000
49 San Marino 0,000 0 16 0,000
50 Luxembourg 0,000 0 18 0,000

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: nitsansh
Date: 08-09-2005, 06:05
A coefficient better than 2.277 (41 pts from 18 matches) will secure a place in the top pot. That is, in case Croatia beat Sweden and both win their final matches. If Sweden wins or draws that match, more than 40 pts/18 matches (coeff. 2.222) will make it.
Therefor, Netherlands and Czech Republic allready secured places in the top flight. Even if they lose their remaining matches, they'll have a coefficient greater than 2.277 (2.35 for the Dutch, 2.3 for the Czech).
France still need 2 points to make it, and England need 3. These teams are behind Sweden and Croatia in the 2006 coefficient, so they need a better general coeff. Portugal need 4 more points for a coeff. of 2.333.
Should the teams above them lose pts, then Germany, followed by Poland and Italy, have a chance to get to the elite group. Poland, for example, can make it with win over England, if the English also fail to beat Austria.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: ron
Date: 08-09-2005, 10:44
What make the different between Ireland, Hungary and Scotland? They have the same points...

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: alono
Date: 08-09-2005, 11:14
To flob:

In the way you calculate the coefficients (number of points acheived divided by number of games actually played) your coeefs may change up and down from round to round (when a team loses, your coeff decreases as the number of games actually played is raised by one).

I think a better way to calculate these coeffs is by using the number of total games to be played, all the way from the beginning of calculation. Thus, a coeff may change up only, or stay as is in case a team loses a game.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 08-09-2005, 11:47
Edited by: flob
at: 08-09-2005, 12:20
@alono,
	Ass.		min	max

1 Greece 1,800 2,100
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
2 Netherlands 2,350 2,650
3 Czech Republic 2,300 2,600
4 Germany 2,250 2,250
5 France 2,222 2,556
6 England 2,167 2,500
7 Sweden 2,111 2,444
------------------------------------------
8 Poland 2,056 2,222
9 Portugal 2,000 2,500
10 Croatia 2,000 2,333
11 Turkey 1,950 2,100
12 Italy 1,889 2,222
13 Romania 1,800 1,950
14 Spain 1,722 2,056
------------------------------------------
15 Ukraine 1,700 1,850
16 Russia 1,650 1,950
17 Serbia & Mont. 1,556 1,889
18 Bulgaria 1,556 1,889
19 Denmark 1,550 1,850
20 Latvia 1,550 1,700
21 Belgium 1,500 1,833
------------------------------------------
22 Slovakia 1,450 1,750
23 Norway 1,444 1,778
24 Slovenia 1,444 1,778
25 Bosnia-Herz. 1,444 1,778
26 Ireland 1,333 1,667
27 Hungary 1,333 1,667
28 Scotland 1,333 1,667
------------------------------------------
29 Israel 1,333 1,500
30 Finland 1,300 1,600
31 Estonia 1,100 1,400
32 Lithuania 1,056 1,389
33 Albania 1,000 1,300
34 Iceland 0,944 1,111
35 Wales 0,833 1,167
------------------------------------------
36 Georgia 0,800 1,100
37 Macedonia 0,700 0,850
38 Cyprus 0,667 1,000
39 North. Ireland 0,667 1,000
40 Moldova 0,611 0,944
41 Belarus 0,556 0,889
42 Armenia 0,550 0,700
------------------------------------------
43 Liechtenstein 0,450 0,600
44 Azerbaijan 0,389 0,556
45 Andorra 0,250 0,400
46 Malta 0,167 0,333
47 Faroe Islands 0,111 0,278
48 Kazakhstan 0,000 0,500
49 San Marino 0,000 0,333
50 Luxembourg 0,000 0,300
of course, for a detailed analysis you need all these values (curr./min/max) and you have to take into consideration the matches/opponents still to come, but the main reason I post these tables is to give everyone on this forum a quick overview where his country stands now and how many points they need to stay there so I prefer it that way.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Ricardo
Date: 08-09-2005, 12:00
From the min/max table you can conclude that Netherlands is sure of being in pot 1! Only 6 teams can be ahead of them: Greece, Czech, France, England, Portugal, Sweden.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 08-09-2005, 14:25
@ron

When countries have the same coefficient, then the coefficient of the last qualifying round (WC 2006, for Germany Euro 2004) will determine who is higher. When that is also equal the average GD over both qualifying rounds counts.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: nitsansh
Date: 09-09-2005, 12:22
flob

Your table shows clearly that with its expected win over Faroe Islands, Israel has an excellent chance to move up to group 4, considering that Hungary has tough matches against Bulgaria and Croatia, and Slovenia plays Italy and Scotland. Also Finland is very unlikely to beat Romania and Czech Republic.
In case of tie on overall coefficient, Israel beat all teams in pot 4 on the strengh of its 2006 coefficient.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: accex
Date: 16-09-2005, 14:16
Edited by: accex
at: 16-09-2005, 14:24
sorry but ý have a question how can calculate these points for any country (ex 17-19 match and total points's average) but which match date is starting this calculation

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Forza-AZ
Date: 16-09-2005, 14:46
All the matches of Euro 2004 qualification and WC 2006 qualification (except play-off's are counted), so from August 2002-October 2005.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi
Date: 17-09-2005, 08:52
when exactly is the draw?

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: SHEV
Date: 17-09-2005, 10:14
Draw is on 27-th January.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Edgar
Date: 19-09-2005, 16:07
If Romania wins in Finland, it's 99,9% sure of pot 2. Only Russia can overtake us - with 2 wins against Luxembourg and Slovakia. Then it comes down to average goal difference. Russia needs to win big against LUX and SVK - something like an overall +8 goal difference.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: SHEV
Date: 20-09-2005, 21:20
I doubt Romania will win in Finland, same is Russia wouldn't win both matches. I think Serbia is a favourite for this spot.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: peter
Date: 20-09-2005, 23:05
Edited by: peter
at: 20-09-2005, 23:15
i beleve that all teams,( Romania, Bulgary, Serbia, Rusia )will lose some points in the last games, so i think the position at the end of qualification it will be as it is now. Talking about chances, i think all teams have equal chances, exept Russia, they have 5% chances to beat slovakia in bratislava. I dont think they'll beat slovakia, not at this time.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: alono
Date: 21-09-2005, 09:04
Edited by: alono
at: 21-09-2005, 09:18
As explained in my earlier post:
In calculating the coefficients as the number of points acheived divided by number of games actually played, the coeffs may change up and down from round to round (when a team loses, the coeff decreases as the number of games actually played is raised by one).
A better way to calculate these coeffs is by using the number of total games to be played, all the way from the beginning of calculation. Thus, a coeff may change up only, or stay as is in case a team loses a game.The current seeding is the following:

______gms. _pts. _coeff.
ned ___20 __47 __2.35
cze ___20 __46 __2.3
ger ___8 __18 __2.25
fra ___18 __40 __2.222
eng ___18 __39 __2.167
swe ___18 __38 __2.111
------------------------------------
pol ___18 __37 __2.056
cro ___18 __36 __2
por ___12 __24 __2
tur ___20 __39 __1.95
ita ___18 __34 __1.889
rom __20 __36 __1.8
------------------------------------
gre 1st __20 __36 __1.8
------------------------------------
swi N/R ___18 __31 __1.722
esp ___18 __31 __1.722
------------------------------------
ukr ___20 __34 __1.7
rus ___20 __33 __1.65
serb ___18 __28 __1.556
bul ___18 __28 __1.556
den ___20 __31 __1.55
lat ___20 __31 __1.55
bel ___18 __27 __1.5
------------------------------------
svk ___20 __29 __1.45
bos ___18 __26 __1.444
nor ___18 __26 __1.444
svn ___18 __26 __1.444
isr ___18 __24 __1.333
ire ___18 __24 __1.333
hun ___18 __24 __1.333
------------------------------------
sco ___18 __24 __1.333
fin ___20 __26 __1.3
est ___20 __22 __1.1
aus N/R ___20 __22 __1.1
lith ___18 __19 __1.056
alb ___20 __20 __1
ice ___18 __17 __0.944
wal ___18 __15 __0.833
------------------------------------
geo ___20 __16 __0.8
mac ___20 __14 __0.7
nir ___18 __12 __0.667
cyp ___18 __12 __0.667
mol ___18 __11 __0.611
blr ___18 __10 __0.556
arm ___20 __11 __0.55
------------------------------------
lie ___20 __9 __0.45
aze ___18 __7 __0.389
and ___20 __5 __0.25
mal ___18 __3 __0.167
far ___18 __2 __0.111
san ___18 __0 __0
lux ___20 __0 __0
kaz ___12 __0 __0

And you may verify - for 100% - if a team X may acheive coeff Y to be ranked upper/lower than team Z, because the coeff of team Z can't decrease.
For example, my national team, Israel, will probably end its games by win over Faroe Islands, thus its coeff will be 27/18=1.5. So, Latvia (and all those above Latvia) may be sure of being ranked above Israel, as coeff of Latvia is 1.55 at least, no matter what they'll do in their next games. In my table, coeffs are more "similar" to points in a standard league table - they may increase from round to round, or stay as is, but they never decrease.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: Gadek
Date: 21-09-2005, 17:07
Dear Flob.
About tie - breakers: I'm from Poland and as I am remember before the draw the Polish Federation had sent a protest to FIFA about changing our place in spots (3-->2). I think the tie - breaker was a higher place in FIFA ranking but I may be wrong

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: SHEV
Date: 21-09-2005, 18:44
i beleve that all teams,( Romania, Bulgary, Serbia, Rusia )will lose some points in the last games, so i think the position at the end of qualification it will be as it is now.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
If so - Ukraine will take the spot, very unlikely though.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 21-09-2005, 18:52
Dear Gadek,
thx for the feedback. I just looked up the FIFA ranking before the draw. This actually could be an explanation for the 'Poland' case but not why Austria was in pot 3, they had a lower ranking than Slovakia and Ukraine.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: SHEV
Date: 21-09-2005, 21:25
Edited by: SHEV
at: 21-09-2005, 21:26
UKraine was lower then Poland and Austria.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: flob
Date: 22-09-2005, 02:41
@SHEV:
Poland is not in question.
The draw was in Dec-2003 and both FIFA rankings from Nov-2003 and Dec-2003 show Ukraine above Austria.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: SHEV
Date: 22-09-2005, 14:16
As I told before - eastern european countries are discriminated.

Re: EURO 2008 seedings (III)
Author: seso
Date: 22-09-2005, 20:33
Lars Kristen Olson (UEFA's managing director) said that the 3 countries that will qualify for the final (to host Euro 2012) in November will probably be Italy, Turkey and Croatia/Hungary. The winner will be announced in December.