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| Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 04-08-2005, 14:58 | After last night matches I get the following prediction for country ranking:Rank'06 Country 01/05 05/06 01/06 This is based on in k-o matches 3/1 points for winner/loser, Valenica, Deportivo and Lens winning IC-finals 12-10-8-6 points in CL-groups, 6-5-4-3-2 points in UC-groups winner is team with highest coefficient remarkable: Netherlands almost catching Portugal Belgium looks to have a solid 9th spot Israel just keeping up to 15th spot. Switzerland(thanks to Thun!), SCG and Austria are on their heels Romania threathening Norway but already having the 21st spot, meaning a 3rd UefaCup spot - Maybe they already get it this year with Cluj doing great in the intertoto! |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: rbr
Date: 04-08-2005, 15:03 | ricardo i think you are being very very generous to belgium and very hard on scotland only 3pts cmon where do you base this on |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Malko
Date: 04-08-2005, 15:14 | How can you say Germany gets 13 points and France only 8...when you saw Lens-Wolfsburg yesterday???????? |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Malko
Date: 04-08-2005, 15:17 | I think he based on "seeding". This is the result if always tthe best seeded teams gets on..... But...he cannot know already the drawings...so..... Really, thinking germany would make 5 points more than France this year is really...surprising. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 04-08-2005, 15:26 | Belgium: Club Brugge 13.5 points reaching 1/8th final UC Anderlecht 14.5 points reaching 1/8th final UC Genk 7.5 points becoming 5th in groupstage UC GBA 1 point 1st round UC Scotland: Celtic 1 point reaching Q2 of CL Rangers 7.5 points becoming 4th in CL-groupstage Hibernian 1 point 1st round UC Dundee Utd 1 point 1st round UC It sounds very sad for Scotland, I agree, but Club AND Anderlecht are both above Rangers in the teamranking!! |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Gauss
Date: 04-08-2005, 15:31 | Why did I know after reading 8 lines of Ricardos posting that there will be a reply by Malko and what he'd write? ;-) |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 04-08-2005, 15:38 | Malko, It's indeed seeding-based saying Real Madrid and valencia will win the 2 cups. I am 99,99% sure that this will not happen. You have declared already before that French teams do not get the ranking they ought to - this is the immediate effect of this, as all of this prediction is rank-based. Maybe this even proofs you are right. If we could do the same kind of prediction for the last, say, 10 years, and then see how many points a country got in the end, then you could get a kind of standard deviation - you would expect that France would have a history of doing better as expected (now we got the superiority of France put in a mathematical riddle. Bert will be satisfied!  ) |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: nelster
Date: 04-08-2005, 15:40 | I see the logic behind your calcs Ricardo. Reality will not reflect this, at least 1 of the 10 sides Rangers need to be knocked out will be and we will be pot C I firmly believe that Club Brugge will be that team. Thank goodness the results don't always follow the logic. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: porto-1978
Date: 04-08-2005, 16:15 | If this logic was permanent the seeded would always be more seeded and the unseeded always more unseeded... This logic would led to an always bigger contrast between seeded and unseeded. I don?t think this is happening, but just the opposite: seeded and unseeded are sometimes (specially in some rounds) quite balanced, that?s why so many surprises happens. In daily life the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer but is not he case with the seeds. Last season there was great moves n the ranking by very unseeded clubs that ourdays can sometimes be seeded. We can?t ignore that. That?s why i don?t give credit to this mechanicist predictions. Why not this way: - calculate the historical percentage of seeded winning and unseeded winning; or else use the percentage of last season events - take as much seeded clubs (the lowest seeded ones) and unseeded clubs (the best seeded ones) to be representative of the percentage of unseeded wins/seeded losses "excpected by statistics". Consider those seeded as loosing and those unseeded as winning. Not perfect, of course, but better. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 04-08-2005, 17:04 | porto, interesting approach. I did look at the points actually. in CL Q1 the seeded got average 1.5 points and unseeded 0.5. quite according to the prediction. But ofcourse there are more exceptions than teams that follow the rules. Maybe this years countryranking(running!!) should be used for order. Maybe even with a 20%/40%/60%/80%/100% usage of the last 5 years. A lot can be done to improve it,it will take time to implement that |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: rbr
Date: 04-08-2005, 18:30 | ricardo i must admire your trust in the statistics but looking at the games coming up their are some very tasty matches and a lot of seeded teams will be rather worried , inter , villareal , both belgium clubs ,monaco and even panathanicos we will just have to wait and see but I have a little feeling that this might be scotlands year . A funny thing to say after celtics disaster i know but their you go |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: porto-1978
Date: 04-08-2005, 18:38 | In fact it?s a lot of work... As example, in this year CL QR2 we had: 7 seeded clubs winning 4 points (well two wins, just 2 pts for the ranking as it?s a QR) 2 seeded clubs winning 3 points (or 2 unseeded achieving 1 point) 1 seeded club progressing with 2 points 2 seeded clubs eleminated in spite of 2 points 2 seeded clubs eleminated with 1 point/draw 0 seeded clubs with zero points So a predition for next year could be that: - the 7 best ranked seeded clubs have 4 points and the 7 worst unseeded clubs have 0. - the 8th and 9th most seeded club gets 3 points and the 8th and 9th most unseeded get 1. - the 10 the best and the 10th worst divide points with the seeded progressing... and so on.... Anyway it?s not a great idea. For example the seeded club that divided points and progressed was Anderlecht, not the 10th from the seeded. And even if it was, Neftchi is not necessarly the 10th less ranked. This would be a good way only if instead of a draw the clubs were paired automaticly with the 1st seeded playing the last unseeded and the worst seeded with the best seeded. So to fail anyway maybe is better to do in a more simple way giving the seeded/unseeded clubs the average of points that normaly seeded and unseeded get. But before each round, knowing the draw, my idea could have more sense. We could calculate the diference between the ranking points of each seeded and unseeded that play each other. Then put each pair of teams by order of decreasing difference between their coefficients. Those pairs with more difference (as much as historicaly happens) are predicted with 4 points to the seeded and 0 for the unseeded. And so on... Still impossible to work ok... |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: rbr
Date: 04-08-2005, 18:43 | porto i bow to you , how you manage that amazes me , unfortunately nothing can predict human error or freak results or dare i mention it bad refereing but i will watch very closely to see how you get on |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: aydinfatih
Date: 04-08-2005, 19:51 | i want to make with team by team a country prediction for 9th and 10th place..only till cl matches and uefa group matches. 9 scotland 26.375 10 belgium 25.000 11 turkey 23.166 12 czech republic 22.700 13 russia 22.208(?) scotland: -rangers-famagusta:with 2 win and CL 3 bonus points:5 points -dundee united-mypa:go through:1,5 points, but because of not seeded in first round out:1 point -hibernian:because of not seeded out in first round:1 point 8.5 point, remain 1 team in CL belgium: anderlect- slavia: at last cl for slavia;hard. anderlecht will go through: max:4 point brugge-valerenga:brugge will go max:4 point genk-metalurgs:2 point+2 point from UEfa first round. germinal beerschot:first round not seeded:out with 1 point 13 point with 2 teams in CL, 1 team in UEFA groups. turkey: -besiktas-vaduz:2 points+3 points in UEfa 1st round -galatasaray:2 points from Uefa first round(or bjk 2 gs 3 points) 7 ,1 team in CL, 2 teams in UEfa groups czech: -slavia prag-anderlecht;1, uefa first round;2 -teplice-mtz:max:1.5 point,1 point in 1st round but out. -banik in uefa not seeded:2 point but out -sparta in cl 5,5 point but out. 1 team in CL, 1 team in Uefa grups russia: it will be hard to get 9th place, it is poossible for 10th place. lok-rapid:max:4,5 points(with bonuses) kyrila-bate: 2 point, but out in 1st round. pasching-zenit:1,5 point, not seeded in uefa cup and out with 1 point cska:3point in 1st round 9, 1 team in Cl, 1 team in Uefa groups. after these, before CL and Uefa groups: 9 scotland 28,5(1 team, remain min. 6 games) 10 belgium 28,25(3 teams,16 games) 11 turkey 24.916(3 teams, min. 14 games) 12 russia 24.458(2 teams, min. 10 games ) 13 czech republic 24.05(2 teams, 10 games) |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Sanibel
Date: 05-08-2005, 04:07 | aydinfatih How should I understand: At last CL for Slavia, hard...Slavia in UC group.. I hope Slavia will eliminate Anderlecht but.....It?s Slavia 5th attempt. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: aydinfatih
Date: 05-08-2005, 07:29 | i think chances for anderlecht slavia is 55/45..so it is a high probability for slavia lastly join to CL..but anderlecht have higher chance.. so if they elimate they will go to Uefa 1st round and they are seeded..this is not mean they go to groups..but it makes they chance higher.. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: bert.kassies
Date: 05-08-2005, 10:23 | I disagree with porto-1978 - and not only with respect to his polictical statements  His approach of predicting the unforeseen cannot work, as he seems to realize later on. Even if you know that a certain percentage of the unseeded teams beat the seeded teams, you cannot use that knowledge to predict which teams that will be. If you could do so objectively those teams ought to be seeded, etc. Within the used ranking system seeded teams have the better chances. But it remains a chance, no more. And that's good. Football will be very boring if predictions become reality. Of coarse one can doubt on the quality of the predictions because of the imperfections of the team ranking. Look around at this forum for many proposed modifications. And predicting future rankings based on current rankings seems a rather mechanical approach. But Ricardo's prediction takes into account the actual teams with their individual ranking to predict the (averaged) country ranking. And thus shows merely which countries have relatively high-ranked teams in the current competition. Quite interesting. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Michele
Date: 05-08-2005, 11:37 | Of course, there is no chance ricardo's prediction is going to end up correct. But that doesn't matter to me. I use it as a guiding line to see the predicted ranking of teams after this season and to get an idea of how well your own, as well as those teams that are close to you in the ranking, will do. This is especially important in uefa cup r1, when very many points are at stake. As an example, if FC København draws Steaua Bucharest in this round, we will be able to calculate whether an aggregate win for FCK will be enough for Denmark to pass Romania in the country ranking, giving FCK the points that Steaua were supposed to win in the group phase. So I definitely don't take such a list as a precise image of future rankings, but as a framework from which to make more and more precise predictions as the surprises happen. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: porto-1978
Date: 05-08-2005, 16:32 | Yes Bert, i realised that this could not work. I also disagree with myself now. This predictions are interesting but of course it can?t be expected that to happen. If Ricardo make this projections round after round each round past more near this projections are from the final coefficients. I will like to compare at te end of the season. (Interesting will be to calculate inferior and superior margins of country coefficients. Specially after the group stages. Considering seeded or unseeded clubs to make all the possible points and calculating the possible maximum coefficient for the country. That make possible to know how far a country can still go in its coefficient.) |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: rbr
Date: 05-08-2005, 16:56 | i still think that the uefa cup will hold the key to this , and some differential should be made with regards to the way points are given for the two tournaments |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: EarlofBug
Date: 06-08-2005, 23:41 | Hi Ricardo, How do you get 6.375 points for switzerland this year? Thun - 1.5 points from 3qR against Malmo, 3 points Bonus, 3 points for 3 draws in group = 7.5 Basel - 0.5 point from 3qR against Bremen, 3 points from 1st UCR, 5 points from UC group, 1 point from 1/16 UC = 9.5 FC Zurrich - 0.5 points from UC qR. Grasshoppers Zurrich - 1.5 points from qR, 3 points from 1UCR, 2 points from UC group = 6.5 Result = 24 points / 4 teams = 6 points for switzerland 05' |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Pedro
Date: 07-08-2005, 14:07 | I think most of you are forgetting Russia. Nowadays some Russian clubs have lots of money because some oil magnats own the clubs and are buying good international players. Soon Russia will be top 6. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Pedro
Date: 07-08-2005, 14:12 | Sorry, but i think there is too much maths in this topic. Watch the reality. Russia soon will be a threat for countries between 4º and 10º place. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: timbo
Date: 07-08-2005, 14:18 | Pedro Money means a lot, but it is not everything... I noticed myselve that russia is also more interessted in the better players of belgium (rumours everywhere) They are flattered by the money, but when they are there for a month then they notice that except the team, they have nothing over there (no family, no friends, ... only money) Most of the time they are returning after a year |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 08-08-2005, 09:34 | EarlofBug I got for Switserland: Basel: 8.5 pts reaching 1/16th final UC (0.5 + 3 + 4 + 1) Grasshoppers: 7.5 pts reaching groupphase UC (5th) (1.5 + 3 + 3) Thun: 9 pts reaching CL groupphase (4th) (1.5 + 1.5 + 6) Zurich: 0.5 pts reaching UC Q2 (0.5) Total 25.5 pts/4 =6.375 Compared to you: Basel: you have 5 pts in UC Groupstage, I 4 (Basel becoming 3rd as being 18th seeded) Grasshoppers: you got 2 pts in UC Group, I 3(Grasshoppers becoming 5th in groupstage as being 39th seeded) Thun: you forgot Dynamo Kiew: 1.5 pts |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Lio
Date: 08-08-2005, 13:08 | Difficult exercise but you should wait preliminary round especially with intertoto cup. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: EarlofBug
Date: 28-08-2005, 07:32 | @Ricardo: Did you update the prediction for countryranking 06'? |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 30-08-2005, 15:39 | @EarlofBug yes, see my site (Exciting,Austria and Switzerland tied on 15th spot) |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 30-08-2005, 18:13 | strange things in the new prediction, scotland 2 teams out and they have now a better predicted countryranking, i understand how it is make, but i am from belgium and i hope that you are right but 9 points for belgium is super great, if belgium get more then 6 points then they have a good year |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Kronsky
Date: 30-08-2005, 18:21 | Nice to see the update of Your predictions Ricardo!  Best regards Kronsky |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 30-08-2005, 21:34 | kurt, it's Rangers moving to 3rd pot in CL that did the trick. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: bjkman1903
Date: 31-08-2005, 12:36 Edited by: bjkman1903 at: 31-08-2005, 12:41 | Belgium 9.250 points ??? I think that's too much ! Belgium has already 3.000 points, so they will have 6.250 points in the future.. 1.000 points = 2 win 6.000 points = 6 x 2 win = 12 win ! (+1 draw for the 0.250 points) I don't see Anderlecht,Brugge,Genk and GBA having 12 win this year... And what about Greece.. 8.000 points for this year, they already have 1.166 points so they need +- 20 win |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: SHEV
Date: 31-08-2005, 12:49 | Don't take it to serious. Of course neither Belgium nor Greece will have that much coefficient. It's just based on seeding. I don't know what for this prediction as it giving obivious false results right from the start. But it's quite fun. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 31-08-2005, 22:08 | Scotland: Celtic 1 pt Q2 CL Rangers 11 pt 1/16F UC Hibernians 1 pt R1 UC Dundee Utd 1 pt Q2 UC Belgium: Brugge 13 pt 1/8F UC Anderlecht 15 pt 1/8F UC Genk 8 pt 5th in UC Group GBA 1 pt UC R1 Greece: Panat 13 pt 1/8F CL AEK 12pt 1/8F UC Olympiakos 12 pt 1/8F UC PAOK 9 pt 1/16F UC Aris 1 pt R1 UC Xanthi 1 pt R1 UC Ofcourse it sounds a little bit crazy, but I thought 10 points for Holland crazy too last year. And they got 13! If you look at the individual teams, then you would say they should be able to get to the named round, according to their coefficient they should. So why not? |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Osirius
Date: 01-09-2005, 01:58 | Ricardo do not agree with you! Anderlecht has no chances to take even the 3rd place in it's group.Chelsea,Liverpool and Betis will be far away from Anderlecht.I just wonder what team will be 4th according your prediction.My prediction Chelsea,Betis,Liverpool,Anderlecht(though I may be wrong with Betis and Liverpool places). About AEK -Zenit game certainly it's now seems 50/50,and then if AEK passes it may reach 1/8 final,but do not forget last year game in Peterburg when Zenit won 5-1.Btw in Russian media spesialists alredy say about Zenit's deja vu and many of them say it will be difficult for Zenit but anyway it's luck for them to have the teames they won last year.Pashing is two times out of UEFA Cup cause of Zenit,now it's time for AEK.And the main point is that Zenit compairing to the last year has better defence then now.So as I said chances is 50/50,but 5-1,better defence and some other things. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Gauss
Date: 01-09-2005, 09:04 | Osirius, Ricardos predictions are based on coefficient. If you have a look at the team ranking you find: 5 Liverpool Eng 115,86 20 Chelsea Eng 68,86 39 Anderlecht Bel 47,48 65 Real Betis Esp 34,33 |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Osirius
Date: 02-09-2005, 01:24 | Gauss In this case this topic should be called mathimatics calculation about rankings but not prediction. People predict and give the reasons why they think so,but not just naked mathimatics.If now to put everything like that there is no use in this case to predict and play any tournament as it is all clear before the start |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Gauss
Date: 02-09-2005, 09:40 | Osirius, prediction has a lot to do with mathematics. In mathematics you predict something by building a model (i.e. a set of rules how you think something behaves). You put data into your model and get an expectation value for a certain outcome. And very important: A mathematical prediction is never 100% certain. You always have a deviation around your expectation value. But if your model is good then your estimated outcome is the most probable one of all possible outcomes and the deviations are minimized. That's the reason why your last sentence is nonsense . Mathematical predictions don't claim to be the truth but more a kind of average outcome although we (mathematicians, statisticians, modellers) know that our expected outcome is almost never quite right (there are even case in which it can never be right. I give you an example: My statistical model tells me that on average I can expect 2.87 goals in a Bundesliga match. I have never seen a match with axactly 2.87 goals but still I think this figure has a meaning.) So, that's prediction. Think for example of weather prediction. There are very complex mathematical models behind it. If you say that for you prediction is that "People predict and give the reasons why they think so" then you even there have a model behind it. It's not so sophisticated like Ricardos model but you have a set of rules in your mind even if the rules are not expressed explicitly. But you have some rules there. If not your prediction would be pure guesswork. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: putzeijs
Date: 02-09-2005, 11:59 | Gauss, no doubt where you found your nickname |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Alexfriend
Date: 06-09-2005, 07:35 | Let me guess, ricardo.Y`re nederlander,don`t you? Lol... |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 06-09-2005, 13:47 | guilty as charged - jestem Hollendrem |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: newman
Date: 06-09-2005, 15:01 | Ricardo, You speak Polish.  What a surprise. Where did you learn it? |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 06-09-2005, 15:31 | family (since 10 years) |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: EarlofBug
Date: 29-09-2005, 22:26 | Ricardo, I like very much this prediction you've made. Can you make this prediction again after the draw of UEFA groups stage? It will be very interesting to see the difference from the last prediction. I think that this prediction is quite good, and if you'll make a new one now, it will be pretty close to the final results in the end of the year. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Malko
Date: 30-09-2005, 00:04 | but Ricardos prediction was not good for the german teams who seems to get very less points this year than predicted. Instead of this, the french teams seem to be gone for having much more than the porediction and get closer to the top3. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Krys
Date: 30-09-2005, 00:34 | Àfter tonight games I am sure Russia will overcome Belgium and Scotland. CSKA, Lokomotiv and Zenit will have at least 12 matches with CSKA and Loko in first pot. The handicap is now 2,300 - approõimately 9 points. It is little cause tonight they did 6 points!! Belgium - 1 and Scotland - 0 this euroweek |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: ralfinho
Date: 30-09-2005, 00:55 | Malko, I agree that Germany will gain less points and France more points as Ricardo originally predicted (Germany due to all-time Loserkusen and the fair play spot of Mainz). However, I think that the race for place 4 in this year's ranking is still open. France has one more team in the competitions at the moment, but that can change. Furthermore, I can't see any reasons up to now why France should reduce the gap to the top 3. Up to now, the top 3 are far ahead of France (as well as of Germany, Netherlands and Portugal). |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 30-09-2005, 11:49 Edited by: Ricardo at: 30-09-2005, 14:04 | I made a new one based on the current teams still playing The 'realised'is not accurate. I changed some links. I will repair them next week only (I'll be gone soon for the weekend - to Luxembourg!) Also results in the CL are not taken into account, all is still calculated as pot 1 finshes first, etc. Rank'06 Country 01/05 05/06(Realised) 01/06surprise, surprise for the Belgian fans! Why this high? Club reaches the semifinals of UefaCup, Anderlecht the 1/4Final ! |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 30-09-2005, 14:05 | I have updated above message to hold correct 'realised' scores. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Maluyaca
Date: 30-09-2005, 14:08 | Ricardo I'm sorry but your prediction is totaly unaccurate. If the Belgians get 5 points (2wins and 1 draw) should be very good result. My predicition 8 Greece 9 Russia 10 Scotland 11 Belgium |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: kurt
Date: 30-09-2005, 14:14 Edited by: kurt at: 30-09-2005, 14:18 | I THINK THAT belgium is wrong calculated but i think that 2 belgian teams in champions league has more chances than the rangers only, so belgium above scotland |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: ianmorrison
Date: 30-09-2005, 18:02 Edited by: ianmorrison at: 30-09-2005, 18:23 | The race for 9th certainly looks interesting. It looks like it's between Scotland, Belgium and Russia anyway. I think Greece are probably too far ahead to be caught in 8th. Scotland (1pt ahead of Belgium and 10 ahead of Russia) : Rangers remaining but have a reasonable chance of 2nd or 3rd in their group after results so far but could still come 4th also! Very hard to say how many points they will get. Belgium (1pt behind scotland and 9 ahead of Russia) : Anderlecht will find it tough to make 3rd now after results so far but could manage a few points. Club Brugge- the key to Belgium's ranking is if they can get third ahead of Rapid Vienna. If they do, i think Belgium will probably finish above Scotland. Russia (10pts behind Scotland and 9 behind Belgium): Probably the favourites for 9th at the moment but alot to do yet. CSKA Moscow and Lok Moscow should qualify from group stages and will probably contribute 10pts between them. St Petersburg will find it hard to qualify I think but all depends on the draw. By the end of the group stages in CL and UC, i think the 3 countries will be very close together and it will be interesting from thereon! |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 30-09-2005, 18:16 | Belgium is greatly exagerated! Anderlecht and Brugge don't have the slightest chance of gathering that many points. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: valyal
Date: 30-09-2005, 19:00 | 2ianmorrison I agree that Russia looks like a favorite for 9th place. Their advantage is that they still have 3 teams in the competition. Zenit right now is not weaker than Lokomotiv. CSKA is planning to buy new players in January, most likely from Brazil. So if the team goes further it will be stronger next spring. Also I think that Greece is in trouble this season. It may happen they will loose all teams by December. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: anita
Date: 30-09-2005, 20:20 | Giuseppe, of course Belgium will not take that many points. Ricardos prediction are made on a simple mathematical model that the team with the higher coeff/ranking place will win at home and draw away, i.e 3 points. Nothing to do with reality, that Real Betis despite their lower ranking is a better team than Anderlecht and that Anderlecht will end up four in group and "losing" 10-15 points on Ricardos prediction table. Take it for what it is. Namely a load of "calculated" rubbish, but very fun, and some of this Forums intentions. For instance, in UC1 12 of 40 seeded teams were eliminated, a "deviation" of 30% in predictions for qualifying to UCGS. Thats a lot of deviation! I will use some time to find other approaches, but they will probably end up even worse than Ricardos. As mentioned on topic, like giving teams that are close in ranking 2 points each with the lowest ranked team eliminated, and 4 points to the better seeded team if the coeff-difference is big. Or look at the different years and development in coeff. Like giving Sporting four points vs. Halmstad and Gala four points vs. Tromso. |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Giuseppe
Date: 30-09-2005, 20:29 Edited by: Giuseppe at: 30-09-2005, 20:29 | or like giving Feyenoord 4 points against Rapid |
| Re: Prediction for countryranking '06 | |
| Author: Malko
Date: 01-10-2005, 09:21 | I I really don't understand how one still can think Germany would pass over France to be fourth again. Didn't you see the games of the French teams ? There were 5 victories out of 8 and only one defeat...... |