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Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi
Date: 17-02-2005, 19:21

Does anyone know where I can find statistics on two-leg result based on first-leg score?

For example, if the score is Home Team-Away Team 1-0, 0-0 or 1-1 in the first leg, in what percentage of situations would Home Team go through or Away Team go through, say, in the last 5 years?

I would suspect that more recently (in the last five years) Home Team that drew in the first game 0-0 or 1-1 was going though to the next round more often than in old days.

Do you my guesses are right:
Home Team-Away Team 1-0 home team goes through in ~56% of cases
Home Team-Away Team 0-0 home team goes through in ~36% of cases
Home Team-Away Team 1-1 home team goes through in ~31% of cases

Re: Two-leg statistics based on first result
Author: Munja Date: 17-02-2005, 19:41	I do not know if this kind of statistic already exist, but I'm thinking of doing it myself.

Author: Munja
Date: 17-02-2005, 21:38
Edited by: Munja
at: 17-02-2005, 21:40

Hm, this season so far (I counted cl groupstage to, because all teams in group play two matches between each other, did not include all results, and did not check)

result	passed	dnt_pass

1:0	15	6
2:0	16	0
3:0	8	1
2:1	8	2
3:1	11	2
3:2	1	3
0:0	6	7
1:1	1	11
2:2	3	8
0:1	0	13
1:2	2	9
0:2	1	4
2:3	0	3

So, it seems that if you win first game and concede less then two games, you will almost certainly pass. 0:0 gives equal chances to both teams. All other results give better chances to away side.

Re: Two-leg statistics based on first result
Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi Date: 17-02-2005, 21:45 Edited by: Sami.Jukkasjarvi at: 17-02-2005, 21:47	Thanks Munja. That's good although I think that's not enough data to make any conclusions. From this data it looks like you have a higher chance to go through if you lose 1:2 at home in the first leg than if you tie 1:1 (also at home).

Re: Two-leg statistics based on first result
Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi Date: 17-02-2005, 21:52	I wonder what was the team that overturned 0-2 loss at home this year?

Author: flob
Date: 17-02-2005, 22:18

The more I thought about it, the more interesting got this question, so I decided to do a little work.
Data: all knock-out matches from 99/00 to 03/04 UC and CL (no Intertoto, no group stage)

Result  Ateam   Hteam   Sum             % Hteam
:	1		1		0%
0:0	67	34	101		34%
0:1	60	11	71		15%
0:10	1		1		0%
0:2	46		46		0%
0:3	24		24		0%
0:4	11		11		0%
0:5	8		8		0%
0:6	2		2		0%
0:7	2		2		0%
1:0	38	74	112		66%
1:1	57	23	80		29%
1:2	40	1	41		2%
1:3	21		21		0%
1:4	8		8		0%
1:5	3		3		0%
1:6	1		1		0%
1:7	1		1		0%
2:0	5	60	65		92%
2:1	28	31	59		53%
2:2	27	6	33		18%
2:3	17		17		0%
2:4	2		2		0%
2:5	1		1		0%
2:6	1		1		0%
3:0	3	60	63		95%
3:1	5	40	45		89%
3:2	7	10	17		59%
3:3	4	2	6		33%
3:4	2		2		0%
4:0		27	27		100%
4:1	4	22	26		85%
4:2	2	4	6		67%
4:3		1	1		100%
4:4	1		1		0%
5:0		11	11		100%
5:1		7	7		100%
5:2		5	5		100%
6:0		6	6		100%
6:1		6	6		100%
7:0		4	4		100%
7:2		1	1		100%
8:0		2	2		100%
8:1		1	1		100%

SUM	500	449	949		47%

so your guesses aren't that bad, Sami

Best regards, Flob

Re: Two-leg statistics based on first result
Author: Munja Date: 18-02-2005, 12:05	Rapid Wien Aut Rubin Kazan Rus 0-2 3-0

Author: feelesh
Date: 18-02-2005, 12:18

This was a reply to that question in today's Guardian newspaper in England.

In theory it is favourable for sides to play away from home first: you know exactly what you have to do in front of your own fans and have home advantage if the tie goes to extra-time. But the statistics suggest there is not much in it. Since the Champions League first introduced two-legged knockout ties, in 1994-95, the team playing away from home in the first leg has got through to the next round 53% of the time: that equates to 36 out of the 68 games played.

Between 2000 and 2002, 11 of the 12 knockout matches were won by the team drawn away first, but since then it has been even: when they won the Champions League last year, Porto played the first leg of all their two-legged games at home.

And playing at home in the nerve-ridden second leg, when the home fans are often at their most twitchy, can be a burden: five of Manchester United's seven defeats in the European Cup, for example, have come in front of their own fans. Maybe being drawn to play Milan at home wasn't such a bad thing after all.

Re: Two-leg statistics based on first result
Author: Ricardo Date: 18-02-2005, 13:10	There was a topic a few months ago about this with information of 30 years back, if I remember correctly, I think it was called 'Statistics'. If you play away first you can always say "Ill make up at home" and the UC groupphase showed that playing at home gives some extra to a team. Still a team has to make up. Losing away 1-0 seems a good score, but you still have to win at home!

Re: Two-leg statistics based on first result
Author: bert.kassies Date: 18-02-2005, 13:33	The topic that Ricardo mentioned is probably probability theory!. It's on my (preliminary, not yet published) list of selected topics.

Re: Two-leg statistics based on first result
Author: EarlofBug Date: 24-02-2005, 02:27	Well, according to this statistic, Arsenal (and Leverkusen) has more chance of progressing to the next round than Manchester Utd! What do you think?

Author: bert.kassies
Date: 24-02-2005, 09:43

I think the JPV stats based on all games until 2004 are still the most reliable. A sorted list of results (only those that occurred in more than 100 games):

4-0   161-  0 (161)   100% /   0%
3-0   341- 28 (369)    92% /   8%
4-1   107- 17 (124)    86% /  14%
2-0   423-115 (538)    79% /  21%
3-1   194- 66 (260)    75% /  25%
1-0   407-319 (726)    56% /  44%
---------------------------------
2-1   197-232 (429)    46% /  54%
3-2    61- 82 (143)    43% /  57%
0-0   151-346 (497)    30% /  70%
1-1   116-408 (524)    22% /  78%
2-2    35-164 (199)    18% /  82%
0-1    36-350 (386)     9% /  91%
1-2     8-223 (231)     3% /  97%
1-3     4-135 (139)     3% /  97%
0-2     3-215 (218)     1% /  99%
0-3     0-106 (106)     0% / 100%

But of course, it's just stats. Real ManU fans are sure that their team belongs to the 9% part of these figures

Re: Two-leg statistics based on first result
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 24-02-2005, 11:16	This shows that indeed losing away with 2-1, 3-2 (and probably also 4-3, 5-4 etc) is a good result to progress to the next round.