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Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi
Date: 09-01-2005, 16:52

Group 1
Macedonia-Andorra 1, Romania-Holland 1, Czech Rep-Finland 1, Armenia-Andorra 1, Macedonia-Romania 2, Holland-Armenia 1, Andorra-Czech Rep 2 making it

Romania 7 16, Czech Rep 6 15, Holland 6 13
outright: 1)CZECH REP 2)HOLLAND

Group 2
Greece-Denmark draw, Albania-Ukraine 2, Georgia-Greece draw, Turkey-Albania 1, Denmark-Kazakhstan 1, Ukraine-Denmark draw, Georgia-Turkey 2, Greece-Albania 1 making it

Ukraine 7 15, Turkey 7 12, Denmark 7 11, Greece 7 10
outright: 1)UKRAINE 2)DENMARK

Group 3
Liechtenstein-Russia draw, Estonia-Slovakia 2, Estonia-Russia 2, Slovakia-Portugal 2, Latvia-Luxembourg 1 making it

Portugal 6 16, Slovakia 6 13, Russia 6 11
outright: 1)PORTUGAL 2)SLOVAKIA

Group 4
France-Switzerland draw, Israel-Ireland draw, Israel-France 2, Switzerland-Cyprus 1 making it

France 6 12, Switzerland 5 9, Ireland 5 9, Israel 6 9
outright: 1)FRANCE 2)SWITZERLAND

Group 5
Italy-Scotland 1, Moldavia-Norway 2, Slovenia-Belarus 1 making it

Italy 5 12, Norway 5 10, Slovenia 5 10, Belarus 4 4
outright: 1)ITALY 2) SLOVENIA
Norway and Slovenia have about equal chances but Slovenia plays Norway at home in the second leg

Group 6
England-N Irl 1, Wales-Austria draw, Poland-Azerbajdzan 1, England-Azerbajdzan 1, Austria-Wales 1, Poland-N Ireland 1

England 6 16, Poland 6 15
outright: 1)ENGLAND 2)POLAND

Group 7
Spain-San Marino 1, Belgium-Bosnia draw, Serbia-Spain draw, Bosnia-Lithuania 1, San Marino-Belgium 2

Serbia 5 11, Spain 5 9, Lithuania 5 8, Bosnia 4 6, Belgium 5 5
outright: 1)SPAIN 2) SERBIA

Group 8-most interesting along with Denmark group
Bulgaria-Sweden 1, Croatia-Iceland 1, Hungary-Bulgaria 1, Croatia-Malta 1

Croatia 5 13, Bulgaria 5 10, Sweden 5 9, Hungary 5 9
Outright: 1)CROATIA 2)SWEDEN

1ST-CROATIA, SPAIN, ENGLAND, FRANCE, ITALY, UKRAINE, PORTUGAL, CZECH REPUBLIC

2ND-SWEDEN, SERBIA, POLAND, SLOVENIA, SWITZERLAND, DENMARK, SLOVAKIA, HOLLAND

13 is too few places for Europe in the World Cup!

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: igrima18 Date: 11-01-2005, 15:06	I think that in Group 8 Sweden will win the group. And I am also sure that Croatia will fight till last with them..... And as for Croatia vs Malta game...I think that Croatia will try for a goleada since they have to reach sweden as goal average concerns.!!!!

Author: BalkanTourist
Date: 11-01-2005, 16:48

GROUP 1

MCD-AND 1
ROM-NED 2
CZR-FIN 1
ARM-AND 1
MCD-ROM X
NED-ARM 1
AND-CZR 2
FINAL: 1.NED, 2.CZR

GROUP 2

GRE-DEN X
ALB-UKR X
GEO-GRE X
TUR-ALB 1
DEN-KAZ 1
UKR-DEN 1
GEO-TUR 2
GRE-ALB 1
1.UKR, 2.DEN

GROUP 3
LIE-RUS 2
EST-SVK X
EST-RUS X
SVK-POR 2
LAT-LUX 1
1.POR, 2.RUS

GROUP 4
FRA-SUI 1
ISR-IRE 1
ISR-FRA X
SUI-CYP 1
1.FRA, 2.IRE

GROUP 5
ITA-SCO 1
MOL-NOR X
SLO-BLR 1
1.ITA, 2.SLO

GROUP 6
ENG-NIR 1
WAL-AUT X
POL-AZE 1
ENG-AZE 1
AUT-WAL X
POL-NIR 1
1.ENG, 2.POL

GROUP 7
ESP-SNM 1
BEL-BHZ 1
SMN-ESP 1
BHZ-LIT X
SNM-BEL 2
1.SMN, 2.ESP

GROUP 8
BUL-SWE 1
CRO-ISL 1
HUN-BUL X
CRO-MLT 1
1.BUL, 2.SWE

Author: anita
Date: 12-01-2005, 09:25

Beware of Belarus in group 5. Norway were pretty lucky to get away with a draw at home vs Belarus. Slovenija had the luck of their life when they beat Italy, and Norway beat Slovenija rather comfortable some days later. Yes, I know the Slovenians were still celebrating their win over Italy...

I would be surprised if Scotland take points vs Belarus. Scotland have a terrible 'vintage' nowadays, and no hopes for improvement observing that their U21-team is last in group.

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: BalkanTourist Date: 12-01-2005, 12:21	That's true. I forgot about them. They lost 4:3 to Italy and have played exceptionally well. You shouldn't judge the future by the U21 team. For example, Bulgaria has never had a good U21 team, but they have planty of young talents.

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: anita Date: 12-01-2005, 15:38	I agree that there are no automatism looking at the U21, U19. Belarus even had a very good campaign for their U21-team last qualification. And both Scottish teams seem to have serious trouble with scoring. But I leave to our Scottish friends on Forum to predict if there is any light in the tunnel (new talents).

Author: Sanibel
Date: 13-01-2005, 12:33

Group 1:
MCD-AND 1, ROM-HOL 0, CZE-FIN 1, ARM-AND 0, MCD-ROM 0, HOL-ARM 1, AND-CZE 2

1.CZECH REPUBLIC, 2.HOLLAND

Group 2:
GRE-DEN 2, ALB-UKR 2, GEO-GRE 2, TUR-ALB 1, DEN-KAZ 1, UKR-DEN 2, GEO-TUR 2, GRE-ALB 1

1.DENNMARK, 2.UKRAINE

Group 3:
LIE-RUS 2, EST-SVK 2, EST-RUS 0, SVK-POR 0, LAT-LUX 1

1.PORTUGAAL, 2.SLOVAKIA

Group 4:
FRA-SUI 0, ISR-IRE 2, ISR-FRA 0, SUI-CYP 1

1.IRELAND, 2.FRANCE

Group 5:
ITA-SCO 1, MOL-NOR 2, SLO-BLR 1

1.ITALY, 2.NORWAY

Group 6:
ENG-NIR 1, WAL-AUT 0, POL-AZE 1, ENG-AZE 1, AUT-WAL 1, POL-NIR 1

1.ENG, 2.POL

Group 7:
ESP-SER 0, BEL-BHC 1, SER-ESP 1, BHZ-LIT 0, SER-BEL 1

1.SER, 2.ESP

Group 8:
BUL-SWE 2, CRO-ISL 1, HUN-BUL 0, CRO-MAL 1

1.SWE, 2.CRO

1ST - SWEDEN, SERBIA, ENGLAND, ITALY, IRELAND, PORTUGAL, DENMARK, CZECH REPUBLIC

2ND - CROATIA, SPAIN, POLAND, NORWAY, FRANCE, SLOVAKIA, UKRAINE, HOLLAND

Author: Sanibel
Date: 13-01-2005, 12:33

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi Date: 14-01-2005, 05:24	Two people think Serbia will overcome Spain in Group 7. Amazing! What have they done so far-beaten San Marino twice and Belgium. I really don't think so!

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: ignjat63 Date: 14-01-2005, 08:53	Sami has a point. We still have to play twice against Spain and Lithuania, and once against BIH and Belgium (luckily both matches at home - we hope to win both of them). So Spain is the favorite in the group. I am rather afraid that Serbia is still not able to keep achieving results in a number of succesive games. It will be great if we do not slip up along the way.

Author: maciosgh
Date: 14-01-2005, 09:04

If everything goes as planned - England and Poland win their games at home we will have a great game in ???? (Manchester???) - if Poland gets a draw away in England we may still have a chance for the first place.

At the moment it seems Poland will have a big chance of qualifying from the second spot automatically.

As for Sweden - they look unbeatable this year (the Croatia result was a big surprise).

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: vas Date: 17-01-2005, 00:59	Despite being the European Champion noone believes that Greece can overtake Denmark in Athens!! Time will show who is correct...

Author: MichaelCollins
Date: 17-01-2005, 14:27

Group 1:
Macedonia-Andorra Macedonia
Romania-Holland draw
Czech-Finland Czechs
Armenia-Andorra Armenia
Macedonia-Romania Romania
Holland-Armenia Holland
Andorra-Czech Czech

Group 2:
Greece-Denmark draw
Albania-Ukraine Ukraine
georgia-greece georgia
turkey-albania turkey
denmark-kazakstan denmark
ukraine-denmark draw
georgia-turkey draw
greece-albania greece

Group 3:
Liechenstien-Russia Russia
Estonia-Slovakia Slovakia
Estonia-Russia Russia
Slovakia-pOrtugal Portugal
Latvia-Luxemboug Latvia

Group 4:
France-Switzerland France
Israel-Ireland draw
Israel-France France
Suiss-Cyprus - Swiss

Group 5:
Italy-Scotland Scotland (why not?)
Moldova-Norway Norway
Slovenia-Belarus draw

Group 6:
England-NIreland draw
Wales-Austria Wales
Poland-Azerbajan Poland
England-Azerbaijan England
Austria-Wales Austria
Poland-NIreland Poland

Group 7:
Spain-Serbia Spain
Belgium-Bosnia Belgium
Serbia-Spain draw
Bosnia-Lithuania - lithuania
serbia-belgium - serbia

Group 8:
Bulgaria v Sweden - Sweden
Croatia v Iceland - Croatia
Hungary - Bulgaria - Hungary
Croatia-Malta - Croatia

As for Scotland, well its a tight group, we have a new manager, and we have a base squad of players who should perform. Hey, I've seen what this group of players can do when they play to formation, as a team (see ScotlandvHolland, part1: ScotlandvGermany, SpainvScotland), unfortunately I know what happens to the disjointed Scotland we've seen more often over the last year or so. (HollandvScotland, part2, Scotland vs Austria, Hungary, Moldova, Wales, etc etc).

We just need to be more consistent. One thing for sure, we might not be world beaters, but we're better than 86th in the world, and I expect that to have improved by December.

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: BalkanTourist Date: 21-01-2005, 06:59	"Blessed are the believers" says the Bible. There is no way Scotland can beat Italy in Italy. Not with this kind of play, not with this team. I am sorry, but that is just unrealistic.

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: MichaelCollins Date: 23-01-2005, 02:25	Hey, its called raising your game And like I always say, if you think you have no chance of a result theres no point turning up. Btw, if Scotland do win in the San Siro, expect several weeks of "i told you so" smugness from myself.

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictio
Author: Richie Date: 23-01-2005, 06:16	Mr Collins picked England to draw at home to Northern Ireland, Ill take that bet anytime Were not world beaters, but not beating NI at home is embarrasing Congrats to poland for making a group of it

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: MichaelCollins Date: 23-01-2005, 21:08	I'm sorry Richie, thats actually a typo. I meant an England home win and an Wales-Austria draw, but I seem to have mixed them up. Still, I'd have no problems with England slipping up (coz i'm evil)

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: BalkanTourist Date: 24-01-2005, 05:28	It is good that you have good possitive attitude. I will be really happy if it odes happen. You will need the best of luck.

Author: MichaelCollins
Date: 25-01-2005, 00:26

True, we will need the biggest luck in the world, and then some. If Italy play at even 70% effort they will wipe the floor with us.

But...the great thing is that every scoreline is 0-0 at the start. We gave the Spanish a right scare a few months ago when they underestimated us. Hopefully Italy will do the same, and if so - we can knick a draw or a win.

The team I'd put out for the game

Goalkeeper - Rab Douglas (our most experienced international goalkeeper, some might suggest chucking Craig Gordon or DavidMarshall in the deep end of the San Siro, but I think on this one night we need experience in defence)

Defence
D Bob Malcolm
DC Steven Presley
DC Andy Webster
D Jackie McNamara

ML Darren Fletcher (became an instant hero when he scored with first touch to secure a Euro2004 playoff - how that turned out, I forget. The boy links well with McFadden)
MC Barry Ferguson (Well he's the Captain. And people seem to attach "star status" to him. Hes a bitoverated, but still does his job admirably in the midfield. And we need the Captain in for this game)
MC Christian Dailly (everyteam needs a guy like this - you know the one who will keep going every single second of the match he is on, making tackles, passes, because he is desperate to win and loves playing for his country. A valuable asset.)
MR Derek Riordan (amazing talent. Last year I saw him tear apart my team Partick singlehandedly. He's brilliant! A striker by name, he's been playing on this hand of midfield for a while, and has been banging in the goals, he's 3 off equaling a 20 year Hibs record!)

FW Garry O Connor (Who works best with Scotlands hottest new property Riordan, than his strike partner? If They could take the partnership they have formed at Hibs and transform it to international level we could end the scoring problems we've had for years!)
FW James McFadden (he gets past defences at a seconds notice and it only needs one of those passes to find a player for a chance to be converted - he is too vital to be left out, despite his lack of a run in the team at Everton)

With Steve Crawford, Marshall and Paul Hartley on the bench, that would be our strongest squad on current form. Mind you, I am not the manager. That team should give Italy a game (I note should, at the very least it would be a very intresting little game hehe)

You know what I think Scotlands problem have been recently? Please dont laugh at this - I think we have too many flair players. Too many players who can do tricks and turns and get round defenders and not enough who can get the damn ball in the net. What we need is a Ruud Van Nistelrooy like poacher (maybe we have one upcoming in Riordan now?)

Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi
Date: 10-02-2005, 00:22

Surprise, surprise.
Noone really guessed Greece's win over Denmark here.
It makes group 2 probably most interesting. If Greece beats Ukraine at home, they will have equal number of lost points although other difficult games against Turkey and Denmark Greece has to play away and Ukraine plays those teams at home.

I think Denmark is the strongest team in this group but it will be tough to catch up with the Ukraine. On the other hand, if fellow Ukrainians (a team where players are chosen according to their name so that today Andriy W assisted Andriy R and Andriy Sh assisted Andriy H) lose in Greece and at home to Denmark which I think is possible, it could be something like this:

__________
Ukraine: DEN(h)0pts, KZK(h)3pts, GRE(a)0pts, GEO(a)1pt, TUR(h)3pts, ALB(h)3pts-24pts total;
Greece: GEO(a)3pts, ALB(h)3pts, TUR(a)0pts, UKR(h)3pts, KZK(doesn't matter where to play KZK) 3pts, DEN(a)0pts, GEO(h)3pts-23pts;
Denmark: all wins except loss in Istanbul-24pts total;
Turkey: all wins except loss in wherever they play in Ukraine-24pts.
_______________

Then: Ukraine 24pts
Denmark 24pts
Turkey 24pts
Greece 23pts.
_____________________

Despite the loss in Athens I still think Denmark has a chance. My prediction stays as before-Ukraine first, Denmark second.

Author: LL43
Date: 12-02-2005, 18:02

To Sami.Kukasjarvi!
You write:
"Surprise, surprise.
Noone really guessed Greece's win over Denmark here."

You have to modify your statements! In several ways!

1) Prediction is a scientific term. It means that you have a certain model for the case you investigate and from past and present situation you extrapolate to the future behaviour. Now in the case of "results of football matches" the experts are those who determine the odds for bookmakers. Their prediction was unanimous (I checked at least 10 sites) that Greece had better odds against Denmark, than the other two outcomes. So the first modification of your statement is "Noone IN THIS FORUM really ..."
I would appreciate it if you speculate on this massive failure!

2)The new data in group 2 were Greece-Denmark 2-1 and Albania-Ukraine 0-2! You had predicted (January 9) that Denmark will draw with Ukraine! After the new results a scientifically thinking person would either insist on a draw diminishing the importance of these news results or would change the prediction to Denmark losing the game! Yet in your new predictions you have changed the result to Denmark winning the game. Against both Probability theory and common sense!

3)We have about 100 games in Europe for WC qualification. A few of them 5-10 would yield surprising results. We have had already Albania-Greece 2-1, Licht-Portugal 2-2 and some others. To guess these surprises can give you good money. You predict "Lichtenstein-Russia draw" which I find remarkable!

I must conclude that it is not predictions you are putting forward but WISHFUL THINKING (second modification). I am aware of the fear (and maybe even disrespect) Finns feel against the Russians. But do you really feel so sympathetic to Danes? Or is it the Greeks that bother you?
Going now to the topic that you started, my wishful thinking is that Greece comes first and Denmark second. But my reason says that Ukraine has a slight advantage. The second place will be decided in the games between the four contestants (Ukr, Gre, Den, Tur). I do not think that home advantage is decisive for the experienced teams of these four nations. I am not surprised by Ukr winning in Tur (only the score is surprising). I will not be surprised if Denmark wins in Ukraine. On the contrary it is my wish since Ukraine is ahead of the pack.

But being surprised over Greece?s 2-1 against Denmark is beyond my comprehension.
Friendly Regards

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: BalkanTourist Date: 12-02-2005, 22:09	There you go again.... Forgot to put Socrates and Aristotle a couple of times and democracy and Greek Logic. Is your self-confidence that low? Why are you always on the defensive? Why do you think that somebody is always out there to get you or your country? You sound like a whiner to me and you are frankly quite pathetic! Try to take life a little easier, ok?

Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi
Date: 13-02-2005, 05:11

To: Anita

I know you were very seriously insulted (to say the least) and many others were very seriously offended by Mr. or Mrs. LL43�s earlier posts. (see �Women Playing with Men� thread 2004 Q4 archive) I am sorry I decided not to intervene at that time but I would like you to know that you can be sure that everyone here is on your side. You mentioned you may be consulting the police. What is the progress in that respect?

For our younger or non-scientific audience, I would like to answer his or her statements (this time surprisingly not really that offensive) with one purpose�you should not feel Mr.or Mrs.LL43 is a great scientist who could teach us how to think properly. In fact, his or her logic is ridiculous and I am sure my opinion would be even stronger if I were to see his or her research papers if he or she has any. So�

1) Noone really guessed Greece's win over Denmark here
This sentence simply means that noone really guessed Greece�s win over Denmark in this thread (see above). What else can I say?

2) > The new data in group 2 were Greece-Denmark 2-1 and Albania-Ukraine 0-2! You had predicted (January 9) that Denmark will draw with Ukraine! After the new results a scientifically thinking person would either insist on a draw diminishing the importance of these news results or would change the prediction to Denmark losing the game! Yet in your new predictions you have changed the result to Denmark winning the game. Against both Probability theory and common sense!

Answer: This imbecile must be doing Bayesian updating when he or she makes his or her predictions. In any case, in my most recent post I said what the situation in the group may be like if Ukraine loses to Denmark. It does not mean I predict Ukraine will lose to Denmark, my prediction is the draw as before. But I feel it is also interesting to see how close four teams can be at the end IF Ukraine loses to Denmark and other things happen. Besides, I am never 100% sure in my predictions! I agree I am a complete idiot compared to Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov (God Bless His Soul) who originated probability theory or even to Al Shiryaev who is the guy today but I do not want to have logically inconsistent person teach me how to think!

3) You predict "Lichtenstein-Russia draw" which I find remarkable!
Well, in fact I predicted Denmark will be European Champions in 1992 or that Ireland will beat England in Euro 88 or that Brazil will be World Champions in 2002 (recall they were real underdogs to Argentina and France before the WC). Wishful thinking and hope to predict very unexpected result right is for me part of predictions rather than completely rational maximization of probability that you get the results right!

I prefer not to answer the more ridiculous and offending comments.

To conclude, I think the owner of this website has done a good job and we have a great forum that some senior UEFA/FIFA executives may well be reading so our ideas have a say in future ratings etc. On the other hand, it is easy to spoil the discussions and we do not want that to happen.

Best regards,

Sami

Author: BalkanTourist
Date: 13-02-2005, 07:06

I had a previous grudge with Mr. LL and found him extremely arrogant and disrespectful. I didn't make much of it eventhough I am not used to that kind of communication considering I am participating in a couple of other forums very actively and never had a problem with flaming.
It is too much to ask Bert to moderate this site as he is already doing such a great job keeping this site running, but it'd be nice if the forums get reorganized into sub-forums according to different topics and then to each subforum there are a couple of dedicated people who visit this site daily and moderate them. There should be zero tolerance when it comes to flaming and people should respect other peoples' oppinions. People should get warnings and get banned if they violate the conduct of good manner, spam or do anything that is not in the best interest of all who visit this site. If that is achieved there will be more and more people who'd come to this site on a daily basis and our community will grow and prosper and we can all benefit from that.
In regards to Mr. LL, I just learn that he's had a history of insulting people on this forum which frankly doesn't surprise me considering the arguement we had several months ago.

Author: BalkanTourist
Date: 13-02-2005, 07:49
Edited by: BalkanTourist
at: 13-02-2005, 17:05

I totally missed that notorious thread. The more I read the more I got disgusted! Threads like that underline the need for moderators on this forum. That's part of the reason why I haven't been very active latelly.
And, Mr. LL, maybe you were a good man and scientist, but when was the last time you checked with your psychiatrist? Too bad, such a mind wasted.... Reminds me on this Bulgarian doctor (who coincidentaly also lives in Sweden) who posts long seemingly intelligent (crazy is what they are) posts that could definetely freak you out.

Author: LL43
Date: 13-02-2005, 12:37

Balkan Tourist!
Completely out of topic!
Your unprovoked answer was a nice surprise! You see I like to irritate intellectually impaired, fanatic people.
Your answer confirms that your text-understanding is deficient!
Your answer also reveals that your upbringing has serious shortcomings.Both Nature and Nurture failed you.
Calling names is the resort of intellectual midgets.
You found courage after Sami called on Anita and the moderator and you wrote two more contributions!
Seeking warmth in masses is another sign of infantility!

I would suggest that instead of displaying arrogance, ignorance, bad manners and even weakness in this forum you should better EXAMINE your life!
You are young, according to your writtings. Knowledge, Beauty, Money is out there waiting for you. Do something.
Do not waste your time in airing (lousy so far) predictions and other trivialities in this forum. Try to raise your level.
Do not despair. Even a Balkan Tourist with limited intellectual prerequisites can make it.
And, please, do not forget!

"An unexamined life is not worth living!"
Guess who said that!

P.S. You have obviously not taken the courses I had suggested a few months ago.
Bad for you that the Greeks irritate you. Since you aspire to get an education you are going to meet them continually.
The higher your education the more Greek you become in your thoughts and language.
The deeper you think the closer you come to these fellows you hate.
I suggest, next weekend instead of displaying your bad manners anew, you read Simon Goldhill?s "Love, Sex and Tragedy".
Easy to read. Even mental dwarfs can manage it. It is a good start!

Author: MichaelCollins
Date: 13-02-2005, 15:32

Yes I see what you mean about the need for moderation on this site. I think it probable that nobody likes being flamed. And I am sure I am not the only for whom a mistimed remark could swing a mood (I have mental health problems, so I guess that makes me a mental dwarf?)

We really shoudlnt have had that disagreement on the other thread which seemed to start this. Mind you, the wierd thing was Anita and I were actually agreeing with each other at the time! (its all a bit mad)

On topic - I just realized that my countdown to the new series of dr Who and the countdown to the Scotland-Italy game are synchronised. Great stuff! (C'mon lets be happy people!)

Author: LL43
Date: 13-02-2005, 17:07

To Sami.Kukkasjarvi:

You addressed your contribution to Anita. Part of it was in fact an answer to the questions I raised. So I take the liberty to write back.

1) You identified correctly that it is Bayesian methods I was talking about.
I chose the term, "probability theory" (the name of the whole field, known to everyone) lest you (and the rest) would have to look up for the meaning of a more technical term.

Writing "Kolmogorov (God Bless His Soul) who originated probability theory" discloses merely your ignorance and raises serious doudts about your scientific training.
Kolmogorov is very modern(20th century)! Bayes was born 200 years before Kolmogorov. But the problems we are dealing with (prediction of results) are even older. Probability theory was not originated by Kolmogorov (as you claim) in the 20th century but in 17th century by Pascal and Fermat. It is a strange coincidence, that a dispute in gambling originated the theory! Check that (and your facts in general) and do not throw a name (and even two) in the air to impress.
You disclosed your ignorance and even your infantile craving for admiration!

2) You write: "It does not mean I predict Ukraine will lose to Denmark, my prediction is the draw as before"
You are lying! You are so desperate to disprove me that you resort to lies! Check here what you write!
In the opening contribution "Ukraine-Denmark draw" and your contribution after Greece-Denmark 2-1 you write "Denmark: all wins except loss in Istanbul-24pts total". Either you do not understand what you write ( seems very probable by Bayesian reasoning) or your wishful thinking is so strong as to deny what is in front of your eyes.
3) You write: " Well, in fact I predicted Denmark will be European Champions in 1992 or that Ireland will beat England in Euro 88 or that Brazil will be World Champions in 2002 (recall they were real underdogs to Argentina and France before the WC). "

Brasil, WC and underdogs?! Greece-Denmark 2-1 a surprise?!
Your football-understanding is very limited! What on earth are you doing in a forum about football?
Why are you invoking things (fantasies) known only to you as part of an argument? This is infantile!
Sami predicted Denmarks win 1992. Who can check that? And even if you did, that proves that you live in fantasies!
Kolmogorov should be ashamed if anyone put God bless his soul besides his name!
And you pretend to be a scientist!
Apropos "God bless his soul". The likes of you, (your fellow scientists according to your norms) tried during several hundred years to weigh human soul. Maybe you are doing research on the topic! It is also legitimate to ask whether your God disclosed to you that Denmark will win 1992 before Yugoslavia was disqualified! Next time your God gives you these great insights ask him about a soul?s weight!
4) You lie, you invoke your past fantasies and on top of these you speculate about my scientific papers claiming that you would disclose my "ridiculus logic"! From your writtings it is obvious that you have no scientific training at all, otherwise you wouldn?t call Kolmogorov the originator of Probability theory! It is like talking about Nonlinear dynamic systems and display ignorance of multiplication table! You are not going to understand a word from my papers, except for prepositions, pronouns etc.! They are highly technical.
5) But the worst aspect of your contribution is that you are seeking alliances. Are you afraid? Your Hakkapeliittas ancestors are ashamed of you when you hide behind a woman. Are you an infant? You need protection? From my verbal attacks? Are you really a Finn? They may be drunkards but they are real men! The ones I have associated so far!
6) As I wrote to Balkan Tourist, intellectual dwarfs resort to calling names when they lack arguments!
7) Do me a favour! One of the Finnish scholars, when Finnish language needed a boost in order to survive the attack of Swedish, claimed that Finnish comes from Greek. He had a swedish name, but I do not remember it! Can you give me some name, some link to the story? I know it is quite embarrasing but anyway you help someone instead of displaying .....
8) Do yourself a favour! Admit that Greece-Denmark 2-1 is not a surprise and keep your dignity instead of trying to disprove me by lies, insults, infintile argumentation and pretending you are a scientist!

Author: BalkanTourist
Date: 13-02-2005, 17:23

Let's see.... I have two jobs and go to school and I referee on the weekends. I also have a gf. I drive a nice car, have my own place. I am young, I was just thinking last night that these are actually my best years (previously I envied my highschool years). I know where I came from and (at least) hope to know where I am going. What I do with my spare time is completely my own business (not that I have it much anyways!). I can understand that part of the reason you are grumpy is that your end is nigh, but do not despare, don't you have children and grandchildren? Perhaps you could read the Greek classics to them or you could take your grandkid to see Troy (Brad Pitt performs this remarkable jump attack with his sword that strikes at your neck). I hope your family hasn't abandoned you, but if that's the case, maybe that's the reason for your grumpiness (I wouldn't be surprised considering your mental stability). Or it might be sexual frustration, but again I doubt you even think about sex anymore (I hope I do when I get that old, that's what they have Viagra for). Anyway, I am not a shrink, so I can't help you, but do yourself a favor and go see one. If you read the posts you typed in that notorious thread you'd know what I am talking about.

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: Sami.Jukkasjarvi Date: 19-02-2005, 23:22	maciosgh, How is it determined who qualifies from the second spot automatically? Some groups have 7 teams and some groups have 6. Is it on the basis of 10 games excl. the worst team in the group for groups of 7, on the basis of % of points or something else?

Re: February-March WC qualifying matches predictions
Author: Ricardo Date: 20-02-2005, 13:21	Sami: to compare the second-placed teams, the results against the number 7 are not taken into account.