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Author: bavarian
Date: 19-12-2004, 10:54
| compared to the pathetic last year performance,
german teams are doing so well in both UEFA
competitions.even Alemannia Aachen(2 bundesliga)
did so well! |
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Author: Wilberto
Date: 19-12-2004, 12:23
| I agree,when you look at the year 03/04 and 02/03.
There is a revival.
But to speak of a real boost i say about 4 clubs must reach the quarters in or UC or CL. and you can tell in feb/march. In my opinion:
Lyon has the better chance win against to Bremen
Arsenal the better chance to win against Bayern
Liverpool at least a 50/50 game against Leverkussen
AZ-Alkmaar has a better chanche to win against Aachen
Shaktar Donetsk is a 50/50 game to Schalke (Ukrain footbal is underestimated)
Parma is no walk-over for Stugart either.
Four teams in quarters, highly unlikely.
I dont think they beat the result of 01/02:
13,500 To beat the result of 00/01 is possible: 11,062, but because of the introduction of the UC groupfase to compare the coefficients between the years is not completely correct.
The estimated average of the coefficients are at for the subtop en topcountries about 1 point (or more?, nice work to do for our statistic members) higher this year anyway, because of extra matches in UC and extra bonuspoints in CL. |
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Author: ralfinho
Date: 20-12-2004, 00:37
| Well, in my opinion - that may be biased by a "German view" - four German sides in the QF's are not "highly unlikely".
Stuttgart (3rd in the Bundesliga) should make it in UCR3 as Parma is in the bottom of the Seria A. In the next round they will face Pana/Sevilla. Should be possible, too.
Schalke is for me the favourite vs. Donetsk. I agree that Ukranian football still is underestimated but Schalke is 2nd in the Bundesliga (currently far better than Leverkusen that won vs. Kiev).
Only Aachen will be outsider vs. AZ. So we probably have Schalke vs. AZ in the next round. Schalke will be favourite again.
All the three CL ties are 50/50 in my eyes, i.e. also Lyon-Bremen and Arsenal-Bayern.
So I expect 2-5 teams in the quarters. 50% that it will be (at least) 4.
But I also would not call that a "boost". It's up to now a good season as from 99/00 to 01/02. As I said several times here, 03/04 was a horrible season that will not repeat. If 04/05 will be a very good season, time will tell. |
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Author: bavarian
Date: 21-12-2004, 14:11
| i think leverkusen has the better chance of the 3
teams in CL,say 80%.bremen,bayern 50%.in UC
i expect 1 of them will reach HF,probably
stuttgart.
i waited long for this "german football" and
i think its going up to the sky! |
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Author: anita
Date: 21-12-2004, 14:20
| bavarian, I agree. In the eight matches in CL2, I consider Leverkusen to be the most favorite to advance (close calls, though). Liverpool not of good, old class, and they will miss important Steven Gerrard in first match on Anfield.
And even though surprise team Alkmaar must be pleased with the draw, I don't think A.Aachen were too disappointed, either. The winner will probably meet Schalke. |
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Author: ralfinho
Date: 22-12-2004, 01:38
| bavarian, anita,
you're probably right about Leverkusen/Liverpool. I always tend to overestimate Liverpool. Must have something to do with the big team from the 70's ...
bavarian,
how long do you wait? 2 seasons? Remember 01/02 and 00/01? |
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