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| Draw CL | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:22 | What a draw: strong teams against strong and weak against weak!! RealM-Juve Barca-Chelsea ManUtd-Milan Bayern-Arsenal Porto-Inter Bremen-Lyon L'pool-L'kusen PSV-Monaco Predictions will be wrong! |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Osirius
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:25 | the stongest is PSV - Monaco  |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: anita
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:31 | Yeah, great draw for presumable weaker teams. To me Barca and Chelsea were hottest favorites to win CL. Of the nine hottest favorites to win CL, only Inter (no.9) can smile (not much and for too long, though). And Ricardo, best draw for PSV? I think so. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Osirius
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:35 | Very hard will be to chose to watch the match,by the way all the games will be played at one day or splitted in two? Would be very nice to split in 2 as in uefa site,that i'll be able to watch 2 matches each playing day such as Real - Juva,Barca - Chelsea and MU - Milan,Bayern - Arsenal. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:37 | Yes Anita, Monaco and L'kusen was on my list. I was very happy when I saw frist Juve and then Inter and Chelsea out. Milan was the one thing to worry for and it was a 50% chance milan or Monaco when PSV was drawn. yes, this certainly gives perspective to PSV, win at home 1-0, or draw 0-0 and away a 1-1 will be enough. Well, player market is open and we will have to see if PSV or Monaco buys somebody good, or how there form will be in February/March. Still a lot of weeks to pass! |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:39 | Osirius, they will be split in 2. Don't know yet how, but they will be. Retunr even in 3: Inter-Porto is on March 15th |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: isidromv
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:41 | Difficult matches for the Spanish teams. Maybe this wiil be the first season in 10 years with no Spanish teams in last 8. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Wilberto
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:43 | Accoring to UEFA rankings RealM-Juve nr 1-12 (total 13) Barca-Chelsea 3-22 (total 25) ManUtd-Milan 4-5 (total 9) Bayern-Arsenal 10-11 (total 21) Porto-Inter 9-7 (total 16) Bremen-Lyon 47-13 (total 60) L'pool-L'kusen 6-18 (total 24) PSV-Monaco 14-29 (total 43) Conclusion Manu-Milan topmatch Bremen-Lyon Uefacuplevelmatch Barca-Chelsea (3th weakest match) |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: duncshine
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:44 | Interesting to note that, largely because of the results in the group matches... Of the 8 group winners, 7 of them have been rewarded with a match against a team with a higher coefficient. Only Lyon would be 'seeded' to go through! I agree with Ricardo, predictions will be wrong. For example, of the top eight teams left in in terms of coefficient, both Arsenal and AC Milan are now seeded to go out, while Lyon and PSV are seeded to go through. In reality, however, this is such a tough call! Dunc |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Osirius
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:46 | I think we should compare accoding to Bookies not raiting of uefa. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: anita
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:48 | Nice one, Wilberto. Shows what dead ends you may get into when you're looking blindly at rankings/seedings. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: duncshine
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:48 | And Anita, you're right, before the draw, Sky Sports was giving Barcelona and Chelsea as first and second favourites. Don't know what they'll say now! |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: vakho
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:49 | I don't understand why you consider Bremen to be weak team or even Monaco especially against PSV or Lyon. Everything will depend upon the state those teams will be in the end of February |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:49 | I think we should compare to final results. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:52 | vakho, if you took the strongest 8 teams of the 16, Bremen was not in there. They are currently not in the top3 of the Bundesliga, so you can't say they are that great at the moment. Lyon is on top of the French league, but French used to have (not last years Monaco) not that good a performance in CL: result 2 wesk teams. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: duncshine
Date: 17-12-2004, 12:55 | To be honest, the only way to see who will beat whom is to watch the game! At this stage, coefficients help provide me with fun with my spreadsheet, but not much more. Here's where it is relevant though. If Barcelona beat Chelsea, Chelsea will stop on a coefficient of about 61/62 points. That would probably put them in Pot 3 next year, and give them a tough draw! Similarly, the loser of Arsenal and Bayern Munchen is pretty well doomed to Pot B at best, while the winner has a really good chance of Pot A. Cheers Dunc |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: anita
Date: 17-12-2004, 13:06 | Tough call. I have two TV-sets and must probably buy another one and one more antenna split, so I don't have to swap between matches. A lot of planning for us TV-viewers as well |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Ricardo
Date: 17-12-2004, 13:07 | And Porto-Inter also fight directly for a place in pot A Interesting battles with lots of consequences for coefficients. Most of this happens in the high regions(top-12) of the Teamranking, so no UC-team can get in between them(maybe Panathinakos with a good run?). P.S. having Chelsea in pot C not only hurts them, but also the other teams in their group, especially the one of pot B!! |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: porto-1978
Date: 17-12-2004, 13:44 | Yes, Ricardo, in top 12 a lot will change till the end of the season. I?m glad about Porto draw just because of that. It?s a chance for my team to catch Inter and overcome Depor and, if manage to do better (or jsut slighty worst) than Bayern, Arsenal and Juve they can get the 7th place (or 8th may be enough to be in Pot A next year). That will be quite dificult but it?s open the chance! Also dificult because at least Bayern or Arsenal, one of those, will progress. An important part of the decision about Pot A/B on CL GS next year will be played in Bayern-Arsenal and Porto-Inter. The other part will be between the winners in quarter finals and by Juve if progress to. I?ve noticed a considerable gap in ranking between those teams and number 13, 14 (Lyon, PSV). Only with real great runs those clubs (or Pana) may be closer to top-12 on the end of the season. But those three clubs and Roma or Lazio (if qualify)are almost sure of being in Pot B if qualify to CL. Fighting for Pot B are Bayer and Chelsea in CL and Newcastle, Feyenoord, Parma and Stuttgart in UC, with Celtic watching. Pot C is quite more open even and Pot D absolutly unpredictable. Well we can predict everything but in matter of fact to know what happen we have to do as Dunc said, to watch the games! And i really like to do that. So i?m glad also that the return game for Porto will be in diferent day so that i can watch more games! |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: anita
Date: 17-12-2004, 14:09 | 22.02 RealM-Juve Liverpool-Leverkusen PSV-Monaco BayernM-Arsenal 23.02. Barca-Chelsea Bremen-Lyon Porto-Inter ManU-Milan |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: macaskil
Date: 17-12-2004, 16:36 | Regarding bookies - the bookmakers of course take account of the draw when setting the odds, so they can't be used as a way of getting a ranking of the teams, once the draw has been made. For instance, Chelsea were 2nd in the betting after Barcelona before the draw - now they are 4th. But if they beat Barcelona they will almost certainly be favourites. What we can use bookies' odds for is to predict who the last 8 will be - and it should be Barcelona,Milan,Arsenal,Juventus, Inter,Lyon,Liverpool,Monaco using coefficients we get Real Madrid,Barcelona,Man U,Bayern, Porto,Liverpool,Lyon,PSV |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Lyonnais
Date: 17-12-2004, 16:42 | it is really difficult to make predictions at that stage as most games if not all look like 50/50. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: macaskil
Date: 17-12-2004, 17:24 | The only tie the bookmakers seem sure about is Porto-Inter. I think Arsenal, Man U, Real Madrid and Barcelona are regretting not finishing 1st in their group. And Chelsea, Juve, Bayern and Milan are wondering why they made the effort to finish top of their groups. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: Lyonnais
Date: 17-12-2004, 18:06 | Inter is a rather unpredictable team. They did (very) well in first round but still look like able to be underachievers too. The only thing I would be ready to bet on this Porto-Inter game is that it will be ugly games to watch. |
| Re: Draw CL | |
| Author: ralfinho
Date: 17-12-2004, 18:59 | macaskil, Arsenal was first in their group and Bayern second. With Real, ManU and Barca in the pot of the seconds, it indeed made no huge difference if first or second. As some of you guys already said, the next CL round will determine next season's CL pots 1 and 2 at a high extent. From Inter (#7, 95.635) to Juve (#12, 87.635) the losers will definitely be out of the top 8. However, there's still the possibility that not all of the top 12 will qualify. Depor seems not to make it, Inter and Liverpool are, at least at the moment, also in question. |