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Author: aydinfatih
Date: 11-12-2004, 13:16

Being seeded or unseeded in CL qualification round 3:what is your probability qualify to CL?

According to last 5 years CLQR3 matches(80 mtches and 80 teams qualified)..

İf you are a seeded team in QR3 you will qualify to CL with %78.75 percentage. in 80 matches 63 seeded teams qualified to CL. also if you are unseeded than you will qualify to CL with %22.25 percentage..

these percentages are year by year like that

2001: 11 seeded, 5 unseeded teams qualified to CL
these numbers give us %68.75 seeded teams, % 31.25

2002:13 seeded, 3 unseeded: %81.25 seeded, %19.75 uneeded

2003:12 seeded, 4 unseeded:%75 seeded, %25 unseeded

2004:14 seeded, 2 unseeded:%87.5 seeded, %12.5 unseeded

2005:13 seeded, 3 unseeded:%81.25 an %%19.25

this can be generated to all CL and UEFA rounds, but for this you need all years seeded and unseeded teams. i could not find seeding tables except to this year..and may some of them can be wrong..so the next teams are Unseeded teams that managed to qualify CL, if anyone of them please correct me:

2005
1CSKA Moscow (G.RAngers)
2Shakhtar Donetsk(against Club Brugge)
3Maccabi Tel-Aviv (PAOK)

2004
4Club Brugge(B. Dortmund)
5Partizan Belgrade(Newcastle United)

2003
6Maccabi Haifa (S.Graz)
7AJ Auxerre (Boavista)
8FC Basel (Celtic)
9Racing Genk (Sparta Praha)

2002
10Celtic (Ajax)
11Fenerbahçe (G.Rangers)
12Lille OSC (Parma)
2001
13Helsingborg IF (internazionale)
14Besiktas (Lokomtiv Moscow)
15Sturm Graz (Feyenoord)
16Shakhtar Donetsk (Slavia praha)
17Anderlecht (Porto)

Author: ignjat63
Date: 13-12-2004, 06:53

That is why I really dislike (hate) seeding system. It practically rules out any surprises and ensures status quo in team ranking. In pre-seeding years the greatest pleasure from football game came from not knowing what drawing pairs might bring. You never knew who your team's opponent might be in the next round. Now that is gone. And even worse, everything seems to be working for the richest. Bossman rule, quality of domestic competitions, money and nowadays even seeding. I think it is too much. I would not mind all that so much if it in practise did not ruin domestic championship in so many "little" countries. So (I think it is also the matter of oppinion-we might easily disagree) I think the best football days were over in the early 90s. Nowadays Eurocups football has become a G3 thing (Spain, England, Italy). So I always cheer against teams from those countries.

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: ignjat63 Date: 13-12-2004, 08:00	My post should be after Anita's. Something wrong with the clock.

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: Ricardo Date: 13-12-2004, 11:05	So being unseeded gives you only 20-25% of getting through. SO the chance that AND ManUtd AND Barca AND RealMadrid will go through are 20% * 20% * 20% = 0.8% If betting would give 1:120 on this I would bet a few Euros on it (though I am not a better)!!

Author: anita
Date: 13-12-2004, 12:57

ignjat, I prefer seeding. That the best teams play in CL group stage, and to ensure that the best teams play there, you may have some kind of seeding in the qualification. In UCR1 there is 80 teams, and any unseeded 'good' team may go through to Group stage.

And yes, Ricardo, it was a simple use of maths. A joke. In probability predictions we have to split it up further (more weighing). Let's take UCR1. 40 unseeded teams divided in 5 pots (1-5) and the same for unseeded teams(6-10). This season qualified for UC group stage:
From seeded group, pot 1 - all teams (8)
Pot 2 - 6
Pot 3 - 7
Pot 4 - 3
Pot 5 - 6

And unseeded group
Pot 6 - 2
Pot 7 - 4
Pot 8 - 3
Pot 9 - 0
Pot 10 - 1

So far qualified for UCR3:
Pot 1 - 2 teams
Pot 2 - 3
Pot 3 - 3
Pot 4 - 1
Pot 5 - 2
Pot 6 - 1
Pot 7 - 1

And still Zenith and Austria from Pot 8 may qualify. My conclusion? Nothing, except that even a 10-pot-'weighing' in UCR1 don't give us much more to lean on when it comes to coeff-predictions for teams and countries.

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: anita Date: 13-12-2004, 13:36	Apart from Partizan Beograd (losing first match at home 0-1) and Helsingborg, no actual surprises. Meaning that the UEFA Team ranking - or rather seeding - is 78,75% accurate. Minus two surprises (81,25% without surprises). In UCR1 25% of the unseeded teams went through to group stage, i.e. a seeding accuracy of 75%. Thats simple maths, eh?

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: Ricardo Date: 13-12-2004, 13:58	Anita, wait till thursday and do this math again. I think you will see a differnet line in it: One that shows that the first pots have clear more qualification as lower pots. Though a qualification from pot 7 shows clearly that there always is a chance!!

Author: aydinfatih
Date: 13-12-2004, 15:22

i think seeded is the best way for cups. many of teams that qualified to next rounds are better. Yes seeding effects qualifying, but not so much. if there were not any seeding than i think %85-90 of these teams will qualified.

for 1 round seeding is not very important, but for a few rounds it is importance is gained quadraticly(i do not know it is correct) as Ricardo said in his post. and seeding is for "middle" teams worst
i think groups effect surprises more than seeding. if last year there were second group round in CL then there were not any porto-monaco final..and there were not such surprises(as you remember porto-manU, chelsea-real matches.)

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: aydinfatih Date: 13-12-2004, 15:27	sorry my message must started like this i think seeded is the best way for cups.many of teams that qualified to next rounds, because of they are better they qualify not because of they seeded........

Author: anita
Date: 13-12-2004, 15:35

Ricardo, agree. And always room for good, unseeded teams. I was more focused on the difficulties in team and country coeff-predictions when 'too many' teams from lower unseeded pots go through to UCR3. Well, this is football, eh?

As for CL, this is meant to be THE tournament for the best teams in Europe. Totally absurd then if RealMadrid could meet ManU in CLQ3. CLQ give room for happy-go-lucky unseeded mid/mediocre teams to qualify for group stage (normally two-three go through). And skipping CL group stage 2 to give room for some surprises. The right balance, I think.

Author: oyvin
Date: 13-12-2004, 17:15

Even if ranking was a perfect measure of relative team strength, you would expect a number of unexpected results. A Poisson distribution of results, if I remember my statistics theory from too long ago.

In short, because there is an element of chance in every match, some matches will have the worse team win. It's actually possible to use the distribution of wins and losses of seeded and unseeded teams to calculate the accuracy of the rankings.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 14-12-2004, 14:16

I agree that there shouldn't be a Real Madrid/ ManUtd in Q3. But I also think that a champion of Germany should not in pot 4, when number 2 and 3 are put higher. I think the pots in the CL should be filled differently:
pot 1: Champions of countries 1-7+titleholder,
pot 2 other direct qualifiers
pot 3 best 8 coefficent of Q3 winners
pot 4 worst 8 coefficent of Q3 winners

For UC seeding isn't that bad, maybe there can be also seeding partly country coefficent so also lower countries will have at least 1 seeded place.
In the groupphase there are more suprises as I expected. some pot-1 teams will not qualify. And that when 3 out of 5 teams qualify means a big surprise for me. It shows that seeding is not everything. Playing at home against the right opponent is maybe worth more (but which is the right??!!)

Author: macaskil
Date: 14-12-2004, 14:40

Ricardo

that would have put Fenerbahce and Celtic in pot 2 - ?????

Pot 1

Valencia
Milan
Arsenal
Bremen
Lyon
Panathinaikos
Porto
Ajax

Pot 2

Barcelona
Roma
Chelsea
Bayern
Paris SG
Olympiakos
Celtic
Fenerbahce

Pot 3

Real Madrid
Man U
Deportivo
Liverpool
Juventus
Inter
PSV
Leverkusen

Pot 4

the rest

NOt sure a system that puts Panathinaikos and Werder Bremen two pots ahead of Real Madrid and Manchester United is a valid one.

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: Ricardo Date: 14-12-2004, 15:00	They weren't in the top-2 of their league!! so why should they be ahead of teams like Panathinaikos and Ajax who won their league!!. By the way. They both ended second in their groups (OK, Pana and Ajax did worse), so they are not the greatest teams in the CL. I think the domestic league ending should be more taken into account.

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: Ricardo Date: 14-12-2004, 15:04	And Bremen was(is) the German champion. They should be ahead of Bayern!

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: anita Date: 14-12-2004, 15:12	I appreciate your idea, Ricardo, but as macaskil shows, then we may have risked having e.g. Chelsea, Milan and RealM in one group. This season the UEFA-ranking put Werder in Pot 4, but this is just ONE exception. Your suggestion opens for more constellations that must be considered unfair comparing the team's strength.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 14-12-2004, 15:36

Last year we had the French winner (Monaco) in pot 4. And according to its strength(it ended up in the final) it did not belong there. And I think that it is unfair for the teams that are grouped with that team.
Ofcourse it is possible to have Milan, Chelsea RealM together, but there was only 1 champion in this group.
This year it was possible to have the Spanish champion(Valencia) grouped with the Italina champion(Milan) and the German champion(Bremen). It almost happened!! I think it is more important to not group the campions the to not group the coefficient-leaders. Or in other words: Last year domestic results are more important than seeding.

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: anita Date: 14-12-2004, 15:48	As mentioned, I appreciate your idea, Ricardo, and wouldn't argue too much against it if UEFA adopted 'your' format. As long as it is called "Champions League", the domestic champions may get some reward in seeding/ranking/pots.

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: Ricardo Date: 14-12-2004, 16:29	I know Anita, I will never convince Uefa of my idea, but wrinting it down here on the forum gets my anger away, a bit at least.

Author: aydinfatih
Date: 15-12-2004, 15:39

to Ricardo:

are you sure about using national competion as a reference in EC. a interesting example about this:

in 2000-2001 fenerbahçe was champion in turkey and galatasaray was 2nd. what happened next year; galata made 2nd round in CL(5 draw, 1 loose in 2nd groups)
and fenerbahçe got 0 point in groups.

and another example panathiniakos and olympiakos. olympiakos was 7 years in greece champion, but pana was more successfull then olympiakos.

so in my opinion national leagues and EC are different areas. yes national competion must took cared, but not more from now.

Author: anita
Date: 15-12-2004, 16:33

Aydinfatih, sure, lot of examples, that's not the point, at least not mine. But we must presume that the League Champions are the strongest team from that country. And since they shall participate in something called 'Champions League', the domestic champion should be seeded in higher/better pot than nr.2 from that country.

But as you examplify, there has to be a balance here between merits in EC and merits "at home".

Author: Agent327
Date: 15-12-2004, 17:20

Probability to get through CL QR2

2001 14 teams seeded, 11 of them qualified for CL QR3
2002 14 teams seeded, 12 of them qualified for CL QR3
2003 14 teams seeded, 11 of them qualified for CL QR3
2004 14 teams seeded, 12 of them qualified for CL QR3
2005 14 teams seeded, 12 of them qualified for CL QR3

So if your team is seeded in CL QR2 your chance to qualify is more then 82% or roughly said 4 times out of 5

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: macaskil Date: 15-12-2004, 17:35	Of course, seeding has the biggest advantage for teams on the borderline between seeded and unseeded. To miss out on being seeded by 1 place makes a big difference to the sort of team you're likely to be drawn against.

Re: Seeded or Unseeded: Probability of CL
Author: Ricardo Date: 15-12-2004, 20:53	macaskil, Last year Panathinaikos was not even 1 point ahead of PSV, but just enough to be seeded (pot 2) in CL. PSV was top- unseed and got lucky to be with bottom- unseed. And see they changed places after all: PSV was 1 point ahead to go the 2nd round CL.

Author: anita
Date: 16-12-2004, 01:24

As I have mentioned on other topic, and what Agent327 illustrates, the seeding/non-seeding in CLQR2 is maybe the most important wall to climb when it comes to coeff-points (for team and country). If you go through to CLQR3, you get two chances to qualify for a group stage. The seeded teams in CLQR2 are on average far stronger than what you may meet as unseeded in UCR1.

If not something peculiar happens, one team (two teams if POL champ have to start in CLQR2) from either Norway, Croatia or Switzerland will be unseeded in CLQR2 next season. Probably Switzerland (again).

Author: EarlofBug
Date: 16-12-2004, 01:52

Can a club that qualified for CLQ1-2 through his national league choose to not participate in CLQ, but in UEFA cup QR1 or QR2 instead?

I ask this because I think that some clubs from "small" countries are damaged by participating in CLQR1 or CLQR2, because many of them don't pass CLQR2, and are out of European competition for that year. Those clubs could go to higher rounds in Uefa cup if they could participate in it.

Something like this happened in Euroleage in Basketball. Uleb's Euroleague is the top competition for basketball clubs from Europe (like Champions league). Last year Hapoel Jerusalem from Israel won Uleb-cup (the secondary cup, like Uefa cup), which gained them a place in the Euroleague. Hapoel Jerusalem knew they can't compete evenly in the Euroleague, because of financial difference, so they chose not to participate in the Euroleague, but instead to compete in the Uleb-cup again this year
(Like if Porto were choosing to defend their Uefa cup this year).