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Author: anita
Date: 03-11-2004, 13:59

No, not a too unlikely scenario that the massive favorite in group E may fall out.

Next matches, PSV-Arsenal and Pana-Rosenborg. If PSV take at least one point (why not?), they are on to 1/8-final. And if Rosenborg beat Pana (why not?), we will have a delicate situation in last round.

With PSV already winner of the group, they may lose vs. Pana in Athens. Then Arsenal must have one point on Highbury vs. Rosenborg to grab 2nd place. And with that pressure, they may make mistakes. What an exciting challenge for Rosenborg in off-season!! Rosenborg will probably defend themselves and play long balls to hightowers up front vs a not always patent Jens Lehmann. If Arsenal lose to Rosenborg, they will end last in group! And Rosenborg 3rd. and go to UCR3.

OK, I know I am just licking my (and Rosenborgs) wounds and believing in Santa after Rosenborgs defeat yesterday and Panas point vs Arsenal, but hoping for miracles is a supporters privilege (isn't it?) and what was football without miracles and sensations??

Anyway, if PSV take points vs Arsenal and Pana beat Rosenborg, Arsenal may most likely settle for 3rd place. Who would have predicted that?

And PSV need one more point to ensure their advancement to 1/8-final, and they can't count on points in Athens.

Btw, group E only group with just one-goal-differences in matches.

Re: Arsenal 4th place in group?
Author: duncshine Date: 03-11-2004, 14:25	Anita, There's no doubt that Arsenal can still finish anywhere from 1st to 4th, and they sure need a big performance at Eindhoven in three weeks' time. I think they will go through in the end, but third place would not be a great shock. I'm afraid I can't see them finishing fourth, even out of personal loyalty to you! D

Author: Ricardo
Date: 03-11-2004, 14:37

There is still a doom-scenario for PSV:
PSV-Arsenal draw, Pana wins from Rosenb
Arsenal wins from Rosenb, Pana wins from PSV:

1 Pana 11pts
2 Arse 10 pts
3 PSV  10 pts

There are 8 out of 81 scenario's that can make PSV become 3rd
When PSV wins from Arsenal, Arsenal wil indeed get into trouble. But sofar they have just one only 1 game: against PSV
3 weeks is too long for such a cliffhanger, but can give Rosenborg time to get into shape. How is this done in Norway? Are the players having a vacation now during the winter? All except Rosenborg's players??

Re: Arsenal 4th place in group?
Author: Ricardo Date: 03-11-2004, 14:48	One more addition:In august, before the draw, there was an item: What other CL teams do you want for your team. I said there Arsenal, and it was a good prediction. Arseal is again underperforming. How do they do it? Being so unbeatable in England, but in Europe so vulnarable.

Re: Arsenal 4th place in group?
Author: macaskil Date: 03-11-2004, 16:44	Well, it COULD happen that they finish 4th - but they haven't lost a game yet and even if they draw the remaining two they should still qualify. I suspect that English teams (except Man U) show Arsenal too much respect. European teams seem to be able to exploit Arsenal's weaknesses.

Re: Arsenal 4th place in group?
Author: bert.kassies Date: 03-11-2004, 16:54	anita wrote: "Next matches, PSV-Arsenal and Pana-Rosenborg. If PSV take at least one point (why not?), they are on to 1/8-final." That is not correct. PSV needs two more points to be certain. See the example given by Ricardo.

Author: MichaelCollins
Date: 03-11-2004, 22:58

Personally (sorry Anita) I'd like to see PSV beat Arsenal on matchday 5, while Panathanaikos beat Rosenborg.

Then we have

PSV 12
Panathanaikos 8
Arsenal 6
Rosenborg 1

So on matchday six, PSV prove there away form by losing in Greece, and whatever Arsenal do they are out.
Rosenborg will not win at Highbury, they just arent good enough (much as I hate to admit it), and so the above scenario works better for a "get Arsenal out of the CL" plan.

Author: anita
Date: 04-11-2004, 11:10

Yes, of course PSV may need two. Was to occupied looking at Rosenborgs chances to qualify for further play.

MichaelCollins, Rosenborg haven't been good enough all this year. Players are tired after a struggly season, they haven't won one away match in CL group since 1999, and they will not play a serious game for three weeks to come.

So Rosenborg is not the obvious favorite on Highbury. But as a Rosenborg-supporter I am obliged to see the light in the tunnel. It is probably an incoming train (0-5 or something), but hopefully our two midfield motors (perpetuum mobile's) will be injury-free, and a Arsenal with need for one, maybe two points, to avoid complete disaster (For Arsenal 3rd place is a complete disaster as well) ,wellwellwell........

In Rosenborgs second year in CL group stage (1996-97), an unknown, unmerited, Norwegian(?!) team played Milan at San Siro in last group game, won 2-1, Milan eliminated and Rosenborg to quarterfinal. Sooo....

Anyway, I hope Arsenal need point(s) when they meet Rosenborg. Rosenborg will prepare and play 100% of their capacity no matter if they already are out of it. As mentioned before, English football is big in Norway, and when Arsenal played in Trondheim, over 100 000 Norwegians from all over the country wanted tickets.

Re: Arsenal 4th place in group?
Author: anita Date: 04-11-2004, 11:17	Moreover: PSV-Arsenal, draw or PSV win Rosenborg-Pana, 1-0 or 2-0 Arsenal-Rosenborg, Rosenborg win Pana-PSV, draw or PSV win and Rosenborg are second in group. So far only Sparta and Anderlecht are 100% without chance of advancement to 1/8-final, but I wouldn't put all my money on Roma to go to 1/8-final That's some odds!

Re: Arsenal 4th place in group?
Author: isidromv Date: 04-11-2004, 14:26	Even Roma can not qalify for 1/8. There can be a tie between Real, Dinamo and Roma, if Roma and Bayern win the next matches. And in the head to head, Real will be 2nd, Roma 3rd and Dinamo 4th (of course Bayern would be 1st). W D L Real 2 1 1 Roma 2 0 2 Dinamo 1 1 2

Re: Arsenal 4th place in group?
Author: Racing Date: 05-11-2004, 10:20	im afraid you're living in dream land if you think Rosenborg can win at Highbury, coupled with an Arsenal defeat at PSV. The real likelyhood is that Rosenborg finish bottom and go out of both CL and UEFA cup

Author: anita
Date: 05-11-2004, 11:51

isidromv, you are of course right. And Racing, yes, the dreamland scenario I hope for is to meet Arsenal on Highbury where both teams may have a chance of advancement - UC or CL. It is one match.

That PSV can take three points from Arsenal, is rather probable, when you look at results and performances so far in group. I watched Arsenal-Pana, and Pana got more and more self-confidence while Arsenal seemed more and more afraid of making mistakes and personal errors, so just no fantasy. So if Panathinaikos were close to beat Arsenal, why not Rosenborg?

As I wrote, probably 5-0 to Arsenal, but - as others have mentioned - Arsenal seem to have a peculiar vulnerability when it comes to CL. I don't think the explanation is that they top the Eng PL because the other English teams have too much respect for them. Teams in Europe (like PSV, Pana and Rosenborg) have great respect for Arsenal as well. But they are obviously underperforming and nervous in CL. Old ghosts haunt them.

And anyway, let me live in my dreamworld, and you may live in yours

I will not go into a deep depression if Rosenborg ends 4th. First Rosenborg will take on Panathinaikos....