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Author: vakho
Date: 28-09-2004, 12:53

I wanted to post this thread quite long time ago.
What are your opinions on future look of CR let's say in 15 years, 2019 ?

I beleive all together sport related ,political and economical factors will take place.

Looking at table of '89

1 Italy
2 Germany
3 Spain
4 Soviet Union
5 Belgium
6 Netherlands
7 Portugal
8 Romania
9 Scotland
10 Sweden
11 France
12 Yugoslavia
13 Austria
14 East Germany
15 Czechoslovakia
16 Hungary
17 Greece
18 Switzerland
19 Denmark
20 Wales

And now 04'

1 Spain
2 England
3 Italy
4 Germany
5 France
6 Portugal
7 Greece
8 Netherlands
9 Czech Republic
10 Turkey
11 Scotland
12 Belgium
13 Switzerland
14 Ukraine
15 Norway
16 Poland
17 Israel
18 Austria
19 Serbia-Montenegro
20 Bulgaria

We can see that collapse of SU revealed that Ukraine as best contender and nor russia as many thought.
Belgian ranking is down since that time. Romanian and Swedish football basicly ruined since "golden" 1989.

As contrary Serbia-Montenegro basicly managed to catch up from Yugoslavia without big impact as SU for example. Unbeleivable but after breaking apart of Czhechoslovakia , Czech position is even better then it was. France really improoved position it's really ridiculous to see them at 10th position in 1989.
But the bast gainers over last decades are Turkey and Greece. But top 4 looked confident (England was banned in 86-90s being No1 before).

I personally predict falling of Germany and France. Those countries employ more and more foreign players that like to make money and not play pushing at the same time "own" players go abroad in stronger leagues. In case with Germany it's less good German players appear in the league. I think in those leagues there is no patriotic environment.
England has good traditions in football and same does Spain and Italy - despite of many foreigners in those lagues they can hold on with "own" resources.
In contrary I expect eastern europe counties like
Hungary and Poland to go further.
Scandinavian teams less likely to get on the top because of populations general indifference to football, that is reflected in funding etc. Swedish "social" era is over , in AS it's more and more "suspicious" players from outside europe regions that look good on national level but they don't bring counties football ahead.
I don't think former SU countries are ever going to back as SU some time was. Lot of curruption, black money , "beach-league" foreigners will never bring them up , at least in 15 years perspective.

What do you think about your countries ?

Author: mark
Date: 28-09-2004, 13:34

Well my crystal ball is not as clear as it used to be so I can look only 5-10 years into the future.

England, Germany, Italy and Spain are going to be At the top 5. France is loosing football power, but I don't think they will drop below the 8 place.

Russia, Greece, Portugal and Turkey will battle and change places between them at the top 8. Belgium will always come short of joining this club.

Czech and Scotland are going down to even loss their two seats at the CL QR. Scotland because of luck of depth, and the czech because the luck of money, and now when they are fully in the EU their teams will loss even more players.

The rest of the countries between the 10-24 places will continue to be there. Their location more a factor of a lucky seasons and changes in the financial status of the clubs. Romania will join this club when at last their ecomony will start to be european.

Author: Lyonnais
Date: 28-09-2004, 14:33

Your 15-year period is too long for analysis and to some extent rather misleading.
If I take the example of France, it used to be 11th in 1989, but then improved until 2nd in mid-90s to fall down again until the 5th place, its current standing. You are saying that France improved because it jumped from 11th in 1989 to 5th in 2004, that's a fact and that's correct, but it also would be correct to say that French football (clubs) is declining because it fell from the 2nd place in mid-90s to the 5th now and far away from the 2nd place. So, where is the truth ?

This said, what could be the evolution over the next few years ?
- football is becoming more and more a business and it is likely that a 10-20 club elite emerges, becoming richer and richer and then concentrating more and more good players and trophies. This "happy few" elite should come from the main leagues, i.e. Spain, England, Italy and Germany (German football might have a fall in the next few years, but Germany is a big football country and they will recover).
- on the other side, we can expect some European regulations will be set up to prevent clubs from spending more money than they have. This might primary affect some big Italian or Spanish clubs and this might be a room for middle-size leagues such as France, Holland, Belgium, Portugal, ... to show up in European competitions.
- some Eastern countries which have a great history of football such as Russia, Ukraine, Poland or Czech Republic will come back for some periods. These countries have been really affected by all changes in the 90s (the possibility offered to their players to leave their countries, instable political and economical situations, etc.) and they will recover.
- at last, football remains football and you always will have some brilliant "spontaneous generations" coming from unexpected countries that will create disorder in European competitions.

Conclusion: I absolutely do not know what will happen in the future. Nobody would have expected Greece and Porto to win the 2004 major titles, so do not expect me to provide accurate 10-year forecasts.

Re: Country rankings in far future
Author: ATHAKE Date: 28-09-2004, 15:11	in 10 years Turkey'll be in top 8, and Galatasaray'll get the CL title.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 29-09-2004, 09:03

Due to lack of money the mid=& and west European countries fell. If I hear now that that there is a lot of money again in Russia, I think they will rise. The same with other countries: The money will improve in 15 years. At that time it will be more like how popular football is in a country. Depending if a 'Star-player' will rise a country wil climb in top 10 and drop out.
My guess is that the top 5 will be about the same (Italy, Spain and England in top 3, Germany and France after them) and next it will be about the same as current with, I think, Russia rising again and also Ukraine, Poland, Hungaria, maybe Romania back in top 15.

Re: Country rankings in far future
Author: fenerli Date: 29-09-2004, 09:24	ATHAKE the 6saray joke was very good :-) lol In my opinion turkey will be placed at the top 8th. the rankings top countries will not change because of their economical strenght.

Author: Kronsky
Date: 29-09-2004, 11:36

Vakho,

OFF the topic.

Regarding Hungary and Poland. I was wathing champ league program on swedish TV and heard the "expert" comments about Dinamo Kiev, as a russian team. As far as I know, Dinamo is Ukrainian team.

Poland and Hungary are, and have always been (except the comunist time, when the expression eastern european countries was made by the courtine) CENTRAL european countries if You see to geaografics, culture and history.

In Poland, we dont say what Herman Lindqvist said on TV program when come to compaire Poland and Sweden in Vasa time (Sigismund). "The difference between Krakow and Stockholm then, was the same if You now compaire Paris to small village of Trosa".

To call Poland and Hungary "eastern european" is insulting and a remainder of communistic and stalinistic time. It is also insulting to real eastern european cultures, that are far more rich on influences that "western european" and "central european" countries.

Best regards
Kronsky

Author: vakho
Date: 29-09-2004, 12:04

To Kronsky follow up on OFF the TOPIC:
My view of geography (biased!):
Northern Europe:
Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Island, Baltic States
(Est, Lit, Lat)
Western Europe:
Belgium, Holland, Luxemburg, UK, Ireland, France
Sothern Europe:
Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Malta, Turkey, Albania,
Bulgaria, Macedonia
Cental Europe:
Germany, Austria, Swizerland, Czech Republic (though very often counted as eastern in media)
Easten Europe:
Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Moldova,
Slovakia, Romania, Slovenia, Serbia&MG, Croatia

On Caucasus countires, Israel, Cypros there were a lot of discussions in another threads.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 29-09-2004, 14:21

Kronsky,
A lot of us still know that once there was an iron curtain dividing Europe in East and West. THAT division is still used by many of us and resulting the term Eastern -European clubs meaning teams from Poland, Hungary, etc...
I know Polish are very sensitive about this, I have heard people complain it about a lot, saying Poland is Central Europe.
That is very true, but is not in the mind of people.
Please be gentle on the people who don't know better. They should travel from Paris to Moskou and then decide where the West, Central and East part of Europe is.

Author: porto-1978
Date: 29-09-2004, 17:02

Starting by the off topic: Kronsky is absolutly right. Hungary and Poland (specially the southern part of it) are completly central Europe; in the middle of them there?s Slovakia, as far as i know the geographic center of Europe!
The western tendence to call that countries as eastern european countries have nothing to do with the iron courtine and is absolutly much older than comunism! Just remember the meaning of Austria (kingdom of the east). Ourdays this is no sense.
From Paris to Moscow is not enough Ricardo, Europe is bigger... From Lisbon to Moscow would still not be enough.
When you open a cathegory called "west europe" you can never not include Portugal, the western european country! Ok, Portugal is south also. My division is:

Division by latitude
Northern Europe: Norway, Sweeden, Finland, Estonia Latvia, Lituania, Belarus, Denmark, Germany, BeNeLux, Poland, Czech Republic, two thirds of France, one third of Ucrania and almost all Russia.
Southern Europe: the southern third part of France, the other two thirds of Ucrania, The southern part of Russia, Armenia, Azerbajan, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Bosnia, Greece, Albania, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Not southern neither nothern: Switzerland, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia (well Hungary may be considered south or Slovakia north)

Division by longitude
Western Europe: Portugal, Spain, France, BeNeLux, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweeden, Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia and Croatia.
Eastern Europe: Russia, Belarus, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lituania, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece Yugoslavia and Macedonia
Not eastern neither western: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Bosnia(?).

If you mix these two classifications, then you have south-east (Greece, Macedonia, ; south-west; south; north; north-west; north-east and central. And central is Slovakia and around it.

About the topic, time will tell.

Re: Country rankings in far future
Author: anita Date: 29-09-2004, 23:25	Just to continue off topic, in the 1920's there was a storm in The English Channel (La Manche), so no ships could sail to and from England. In the London based newspaper The Times the headlines were: "The continent is isolated".