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Author: mark
Date: 04-08-2004, 22:47

The current standing is

13 Poland 19.000 4/ 4
14 Israel 18.624 4/ 4
15 Switzerland 18.375 3/ 4
--------------------------------------
16 Ukraine 17.550 5/ 5
17 Serbia-Montenegro 17.374 4/ 4
18 Austria 17.250 4/ 4
19 Norway 17.200 4/ 4
20 Bulgaria 16.165 3/ 4
21 Russia 16.041 4/ 4
22 Denmark 16.033 2/ 3
23 Croatia 15.458 2/ 3

With one team already out, and one team from the second league switzerland will probably drop below the 15 place.

Having their champions (and high seeded teams) out, Denmark and Croatia are probably out of the race.

Bulgaria is also not in a good position, but they still have good teams at the UC.

So who is going to replace the swiss, will it be Ukrain (which would have done better if they had only 4 teams) , S&M, Austria, Norway, or Russia will come from behind, and will Israel succeed to keep its place? Stay tuned for the next episod next week.

BTW, it is interesting to note that in the match Rosenborg - Haifa, it might be better for each country that its team will lose, since both teams will be seeded at UC round 1.

Author: kondor
Date: 04-08-2004, 23:13

I would have to say it's between Serbia and Montenegro and Ukraine. I think Crvena Zvezda will at least draw at home against PSV and a draw away would be satisfying also. Partizan is playing Otelul Galati and i don't know the Romanian teams form but im expecting wins there, Steaua and Zeleznik go at it and i dont expect Zeleznik to go through but if they could get a draw at home it will get us some points. Banatski is the weakest one here but they play Maribor I think, same style of football by both sides and anything could happen......

Author: LevskiFan
Date: 05-08-2004, 00:19

I think its between Bulgaria and probably Serbia but I'm not so sure about them because Zvezda will lose both games from PSV and abot Zeleznik and Budocnost I;m not quite sure that they will pass the qualifying round,as up to Partizan they will be the only serbian team to bring the points I think!Bulgaria will get the most points from the teams between 15-20 place as we have LEVSKI,CSKA and LITEX who will pass the qualifying round for sure and after that Levski will defenetly pass the 1st round as they are seeded,Litex and CSKA I think that at least 1 team, will pass and go to the group stages so 2 teams in the groups from Bulgaria I think that this year will be really good for us!I really think that we can get the 15th place if not, next year for sure!

Author: kondor
Date: 05-08-2004, 00:49

Serbia & Montenegro will not only have 1 team in the group stages because Crvena Zvezda will get in if they lose in the third qualifying round of the Champions league but Bulgaria's representative Loko Plovdiv did not make it to the 3rd qualifying round so I think Serbia has a slight advantage as I think Partizan and Crvena Zvezda can do better in the group stage of the UEFA cup than CSKA and Levski just because they will probably play weakerteams because of the bigger coefficient and seeding...

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: LevskiFan Date: 05-08-2004, 03:57	Yes, but when Zvezda loses both games from PSV and until they get to the UC, Levski,CSKA and Litex will all have won their games(6) because they play against really weak teams and there will be no problems for them!So what I'm trying to say is that Bulgaria will have a much bigger coefficient than serbia because our teams will have played more games than yours!

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: kondor Date: 05-08-2004, 04:13	We will see.... 17 Serbia-Montenegro 17.374 4/ 4 20 Bulgaria 16.165 3/ 4 Difference +/- 1.209 You sound too confident but its not really up to you

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: manecar Date: 05-08-2004, 07:58	And why do you think that Zvezda will loose both games with PSV? I think that chances are 50:50. PSV is without Robben and Kezman - their best players last few years. PSV can't beat Zvezda in Belgrade, that's for sure.

Author: Ricardo
Date: 05-08-2004, 08:44

The funny thing is that, as discussed before on this forum, for coefficient reasons you want your(the one you support) country to loose CL-Q3. I feel very strange about that. So saying that Red Start will
loose means you hope he gets more points in the UC??

I think it will be Israel keeping its place(unless both Maccabi's make it to the CL) and Montenegro&Serbia(I am hoping for PSV to go to CL as a fan).

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rosa Date: 05-08-2004, 11:51	We (Poland) could have a problem with Wisła propably loose to Real (no points in Q3)and Lech plays in UEFA qr with russian team. BUT if Wisła is out of CL we will still have maybe 3 clubs in 1 round of UEFA and possibly 2 in group stage so I hope we stay in place 13,14 or 15.

Author: anita
Date: 05-08-2004, 12:50

I think Poland will keep their place among the 15. Three countries have to pass them, and I can't find three countries capable. The differences are (with 2 points for win and one for draw):

Poland - 0
Israel - 2.5
Switzerland - 3.5
Serbia - 6.5
Austria - 6.0
Norway - 7.2
Ukraine - 7.3 (five teams)
Denmark - 10.8 (three teams. Well, two now)
Bulgaria - 11.3
Russia - 11.8
Croatia - 12.7 (three teams. Well..)

Meaning that Israel must have 2.5 more than Poland to overcome them. Switzerland, Bulgaria, Denmark and Croatia already one team short. The crucial border is Switzerland on 15th.

I think you can rule out all countries from Norway and down. E.g. Bulgaria need 7.5 points more than Switzerland to pass them, and Bulgaria gained 12.5 points in 2003/04.

Austria and Serbia with tricky opponents in both cups, but OK. Leaving four countries to fight for two places. Israel with lucky draws may take one of them. Both teams in CLQ3 with fair chances to go to CL gives six bonus points. So my humble guess is Israel and Poland, and Austria, Serbia and Switzerland to fight for the last place. But - its early days, and a lot is depending on qualifications for UC (especially) and CL group stage.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: ZUZIK Date: 05-08-2004, 13:40	2 anita your opinion about the chances of Ukrain in coeficient table? i think we(Ukraine)wust exceed more than 30 point (yeah,we have 5 teams)

Author: mark
Date: 05-08-2004, 16:34

Lets apply some old fashined preditions to try and forcast the future. The prediction is base on the following fact

in cup style draw the seeded teams wins a game and there is a draw in the second game.

In CL group stage the distribution of points is 3-5-7-9. Group final places are deterimind by seeding.

In UC group stage the distribution of points is 1-2.5-4-5.5-7. Group final places are deterimind by seeding.

Apllying this rule we get the following table at the end of the season (december?

)

13 Poland 24.5 (wisla is not seeded in UC round 3)
14 Switzerland 22.875 (basel is not seeded in UC round 3)
15 Israel 21.374
--------------------------------------
16 Ukraine 21.050 -2
17 Norway 20.950 -2
18 Serbia-Montenegro 20.624 -3
19 Austria 20.125 -5
20 Denmark 20.033 -4.5 (bronbdy is not seeded in UC round 3)
21 Bulgaria 19.165 -9
22 Croatia 18.791 -8.5 (Zagreb is not seeded in UC round 3)
23 Russia 17.791 -14

Beware that this kind of predictions do not predict suprises so the swiss are overrated while norway and Ukrain in the CL might be underrated.

By these numbers it looks like Bulgaria, Croatia and Russia are out of the race. The rest are close enough so a good suprise for them, and a bad one for Israel will bridge the gap.

See you all next week in our special pre-game report from the locker rooms.

Author: maymunata
Date: 05-08-2004, 17:23

That's what I think will happen:
Poland: Wisla and Legia will go to the UC Groups, but Amika and Lech won't. Around 5.000 coef.
Israel: All teams out early - in UCR1 (max 1 in the groups). Around 3.000 coef.
Switzerland: Bazel in UC Groups, Servette and Wil go out in UCR1. Around 3.000 coef.
Ukraine: Dynamo or Shakhtar in the UCL Groups (but only one of them) - 4th place, 2 teams in UC Groups, max 1 team in 1/16 finals UC. Around 5.000 coef.
Serbia and Montenegro: Crvena zwezda 50/50 to go to the UCL Group stage, if not, surely in UC Groups with Partizan, Zeleznik and Buduchnost out in UCQ2. Max 1 team in 1/16-finals UC, but big chances. around 5.000-5.500 coef.
Austria: Pasching out in UCQ3, only one team in the UC Groups. Around 2.500 coef.
Norway. Rosenborg in the UCL Groups, but low chanse of progressing tot he 1/8-finals, max 1 team in UC Groups. Around 4.500 coef.
Bulgaria: Levski in UC Groups, maybe one more team, but low chance of reaching the 1/16-finals. Around 4.000 coef.
Russia: Rubin out in UCQ3, Terek out in UCR1, Zenit and CSKA in the Groups (CSKA has chance against Rangers). Maybe one team in 1/16-finals. Around 4.000-4.500 coef.
Croatia, Dennmark and Sweden are definitely out of contention.

So for me it's
13. Poland
14. Ukraine
15. Serbia and Montenegro

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: kondor Date: 05-08-2004, 20:39	I completely agree with Maymunata

Author: Nick
Date: 05-08-2004, 21:03

Actually we don't have an idea about UCR1 seeding. It all depends on QR2 results and may change significantly. Some examples of unclear matches (not counting Nova Gorica style superbombs):

Gençlerbirligi Tur - NK Rijeka Cro
Zeleznik Belgrade Srb - Steaua Bucuresti Rom
Partizan Belgrade Srb - Otelul Galati Rom
Terek Grozny Rus - Lech Poznan Pol
Rubin Kazan Rus - Rapid Wien Aut
Illichivets Mariupol Ukr - Austria Wien Aut
Amica Wronki Pol Kispest - Honvéd Hun

As one can see there is plenty room for upsets

And i hope at least 4 will actually happen so my team CSKA Sofia can be seeded in R1

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: kondor Date: 05-08-2004, 21:16	A little off-topic but.... KAPPA Kup: Tottenham Hotspur 1-1 Partizan* Win on penalties

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rosa Date: 06-08-2004, 10:24	In third round of UEFA QF there are some matches between countries 13-22 to watch and some teams are going down. Terek Grozny Rus Lech Poznan Pol Rubin Kazan Rus Rapid Wien Aut Illichivets Mariupol Ukr Austria Wien Aut SV Pasching Aut Zenit St. Petersburg Rus As you see Austria and Russia are in really bad position due to the regional seeding rule

Author: maymunata
Date: 06-08-2004, 11:15

That's what our CSKA Sofia needs:
Genclerbirligi - Rieka
Zeleznik - Steaua
Dinamo Zagreb - Primorie
Partizan - Otelul
Slavia Praha - Dinamo Tbilisi
Servette - Ujpest
Legia - FC Tbilisi
Amika - Honved
Ventspils - Brondby
4 out of 9 seeded must be gone. I can't imagine Steaua, Partizan, Legia and Brondby losing their ties but the other 5 games are quite open.
The seeding doesn't mean so much for CSKA. We can take CSKA Moscow or Standart Liege if we're seeded, and Hearts and Macabi Haifa if not.

Author: anita
Date: 06-08-2004, 13:05

The main problem this season (on predicting) is not the seeding, but the unpredictable Group Stage in UEFA-cup. If you manage to qualify for group stage, you are probably good enough to get minimum 2-3-4 points there. And if a country (13-23) is lucky to get two-three teams in group stage (and that may be from whatever country, seeded ot not seeded teams), this will throw around all our toys.

And a little afterthought om my former reply; yes, Ukraina may have a chance for 15th place. Their chance of getting two teams in CL, are absolutely there. Not exactly favorites to advance from CL group stage, but those six bonus points can be worth a lot. Generally, the mid-(lower) countries will get less points this year, because most of their teams will be washed away (latest) in UEFA round 1.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Nick Date: 06-08-2004, 15:03	@maymunata: And don't forget Slovan Liberec in the Intertoto Cup. If they qualify the number of needed surprises in QR2 is reduced to 3

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: maymunata Date: 06-08-2004, 15:53	Sorry, Nick, but Liberec has 33.915 coef., so there're not going to influence our position even if they qualify. CSKA was so unlucky. If Porto and Monaco were eliminated on 1/2-final in last season CL, the red's chance of being seeded was nearly 100%. But we still remember what happened last year when we were seeded against Torpedo Moscow...

Author: manaus
Date: 06-08-2004, 19:41

UEFA Country Ranking 2006

13 Isr 8.333 5.833 2.250 0.375 0.000 16.791 4/4
14 Pol 4.125 6.625 4.125 0.500 0.000 15.375 4/4
15 Swi 6.125 5.875 1.875 0.125 0.000 14.000 3/4
................................................
16 Ukr 3.625 4.250 4.875 0.800 0.000 13.550 5/5
17 Bul 4.833 4.166 4.166 0.000 0.000 13.165 3/4
18 Srb 3.166 4.833 4.500 0.375 0.000 12.874 4/4
19 Nor 3.250 2.700 6.125 0.500 0.000 12.575 4/4

Means that except Israel and Poland, which are practically inside “club 15”, other countries have quite equal chances to reach the “club”. UEFA Country Ranking 2006

13 Isr 8.333 5.833 2.250 0.375 0.000 16.791 4/4
14 Pol 4.125 6.625 4.125 0.500 0.000 15.375 4/4
15 Swi 6.125 5.875 1.875 0.125 0.000 14.000 3/4
................................................
16 Ukr 3.625 4.250 4.875 0.800 0.000 13.550 5/5
17 Bul 4.833 4.166 4.166 0.000 0.000 13.165 3/4
18 Srb 3.166 4.833 4.500 0.375 0.000 12.874 4/4
19 Nor 3.250 2.700 6.125 0.500 0.000 12.575 4/4

Means that except Israel and Poland, which are practically inside “club 15”, other countries have quite equal chances to reach the “club”. Switzerland is strong Basel in UC for a longer time. Other two clubs seems to be much weaker...
Ukraine with 5 teams, which brings coef. 0.200 per each point, may count to the points of Dinamo K and Sahtjor, other clubs are not so strong for a longer participation in the cups. (Metalurg is questionable) Group stage, in case they both pass inside, may bring 6-8 points and probably elimination of Sahtjor. UC group stage may (Sahtjor, Metalurg) and Dinamo K in CL is the best combination for this season.
Thanks to the draw, it would be surprise that any of 3 teams from Bulgaria be eliminated. UCR1 is questionable and depends on draw 1-2 teams will pass to the UC group stage.
It is difficult to estimate the power of Romanian clubs Steaua and Otelul so Partizan and Zeleznik will have difficult pass to UCR1 (some relations-friendly match Zeleznik-Zilina (Slovakia) 5:1, Dinamo Bucharesti-Zilina 1-0 (both matches of CLQ2). Buducnost BD play with Maribor (Slovenia), any point from them would be more than great. Looking country ranking, participation of Zvezda in UC is much better than CL. Same like Rosenborg. Other 3 clubs from Norway are stronger than the clubs they seeded in UCR2, but UCR1 will be most likely final stage for at least 2 of them.
Rubin-Rapid and Pashing –Zenit, double Russian-Austrian match at this stage, for sure will stop them to reach “club 15”. Let’s wait for warm September...

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rx Date: 06-08-2004, 20:01	I think Switzerland will go out from top 21 after this season.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rx Date: 06-08-2004, 20:02	And Austria maybe too.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rx Date: 06-08-2004, 20:12	Hm. Didnt notice that there are almost nothing left below 21 :D So Switzerland just out of 15.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Nefi Date: 06-08-2004, 20:49	Hello i am not involved in 15th place combat. But I am asking why all people there automaticaly underestimate Austria and Suisse. It is not so easy how it seems to be. Maybe there is not enogh contributors from this 2 coutries to defend their position.

Author: maymunata
Date: 06-08-2004, 21:06

I'm 100% convinced that Partizan and Steaua will go through. Zeleznik and Otelul have no chance at all. Partizan is stronger than in the springseason, but probably equal to the strenght of the team that had eliminated Newcastle and played so bravely against Real, Porto and Marseille a year ago. Steaua are stronger team than the one that had eliminated Southampton last autumn. Otelul and Zeleznik are not the clubs that could stop them. You can bet on it - I can garantee you a profit

Author: Rx
Date: 06-08-2004, 21:10

For example if we take the points from last year and use them for this year, what will happen:

13 Norway 4.625 3.250 2.700 6.125 0.500 22.825 4/ 4
14 Poland 3.625 4.125 6.625 4.125 0.500 22.625 4/ 4
15 Ukraine 4.000 3.625 4.250 4.875 0.800 21.625 5/ 5
16 Russia 3.833 2.333 3.625 5.875 0.375 21.541 4/ 4
17 Austria 7.750 3.375 4.000 2.125 0.000 21.500 4/ 4
18 Serbia-Montenegro 4.500 3.166 4.833 4.500 0.375 21.499 4/ 4
19 Israel 1.833 8.333 5.833 2.250 0.375 20.499 4/ 4
20 Bulgaria 3.000 4.833 4.166 4.166 0.000 20.331 3/ 4
21 Switzerland 4.375 6.125 5.875 1.875 0.125 20.125 3/ 4
22 Denmark 3.750 4.500 3.250 4.200 0.333 19.900 2/ 3
23 Croatia 4.375 4.375 2.750 3.625 0.333 18.750 2/ 3

Author: anita
Date: 07-08-2004, 11:01

Nefi, if you read my replies earlier, I have indeed Austria and Switzerland up there fighting. But remember that lot of contributors on this topic are from Serbia, Bulgaria and will "automatically" try to find ways to put their country up there. Putting Bulgaria up there is very, very optimistic and is hardly rooted in reality.

Austria, Switzerland and Israel had very poor season last year. And Austria with tough opposition in UCQR2.

And maymunata, there you go again with your 100% predictions.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Zuberbuler Date: 07-08-2004, 11:35	For Bulgaira will be very difficult to go up,almost impossible.But for Austria and Switzerland will be more difficult to hold theirs positions. And Anita i`m 100% sure about that

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: manecar Date: 09-08-2004, 11:50	I hope Banatski Dvor will bring Serbia at least 0.5 point in the UEFA ranking.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: manaus Date: 09-08-2004, 23:24	hardly....they play 1. match at the Partizan yard. Maribor is more experienced club than this second-division team. Any point from Buducnost BD is more than welcome.(ps: are u at the playground tomorrow?)

Author: SHEV
Date: 10-08-2004, 00:52

I think it will be much easier for Ukraine to take 15-th place then it was last year when it was really a battle. With some luck Dynamo and Shakhtar could bring 9 points just after qualifying. Metallurg and Dnipro must bring 4 and probably 1 point from Illichivets even if they'll not go through. So it is possibility to take 3.000 after the upcoming ties. Then about 4(two for win, one for draw) points from Shakhtar and 5 from Dynamo in CL groups with Dynamo going to UC and getting there about 4 points. It is another +13. Can hope on about 4 points from Dnipro and Metallurg in UCR1 with Dnipro in groups gettting 3 points. Means +20 and 4.000. So at the end 7.800. It is optimistic predictions, not extremely optimistic but still optimistic enough.

Being pessimist it could go that way: Dynamo in Cl groups, Shakhtar out - their points 5(1.5+0.5+3(bonus)) Metallurh and Dnipro getting 3 points goin' to UCR1, Illichivets - 0,5 and out. So 8.5 after qualification. Dynamo gettin 4 points in CL and out. Dnipro and Mettalurh 3 points in UCR1 and out. Shakhtar 3 points and through to UCgroups. Getting there 5 points and goin through - then 1 point and out. So it is 8,5 for quals + 16 for main tournaments males it 24.5 and almost 5.000 - I think it could be enough for taking 15-th place even with things goin' very bad.

Author: SHEV
Date: 10-08-2004, 01:28

I mean Ukraine has minimum 18 matches long euroseason - it is minimum. If objective - about 34. Optimistic - 40-42. Quite a long this year comparing with last year 24 where we get 19.5 points. So by this calculation we should get about 27-28 points. It means about 5.500 - should be enough considering Swiss and Austrians will struggle. Swiss will definitely do. Serbia can fall too with real possibilty for two teams to lose in UCQR2. So it is up to Poland, Israel, Ukraine, Norway. Who will be left over? Israel that had only two great seasons and another collapse last year looking very weak with one of their best teams had such problems on HJK. My opinion is Poland then Ukraine and Norway.

I think we all agree in one point - Poland has extremely solid chances to stay in 13 place and no doubt they will be in "club 15". But I'm really concerned about that Poland doesn't really need it - when the last time Polish team played in CL. Was it Widzew in 1997 or something =) So as Austrians has no teams in CL after Sturm Graz, Swiss - once with Basel for a long time, Israel with Maccabi 2 years ago. From all countries fighting for 15-th place only Ukraine and Russia used advantage it giving each once in 2001 Ukraine had 2 teams in CL, in 2002 - Russia. Even Czech Rep. never had 2 teams in CL and not every year 1 team.

Author: Adam(L)
Date: 10-08-2004, 08:46

Shav. The absence of Polish clubs in champion’s league doesn’t mean that Polish clubs don’t need the second place in qualification. In my opinion it is possible that Polish haven’t play in CL just because of seeding system, and I’m sure that the second club will increase Polish chances for CL very much. Please compere Polish opponents in 3rd QR with Ukrainien one.
Year Poland Ukraine
1997/98 AC Parma Broendby
1998/99 Man Utd Sparta Praha
1999/00 Fiorentina Aalborg
2000/01 Panathinaikos Red Star B.
Slavia Praha
2001/02 FC Barcelona Borussia Dortmund
Steaua Bucuresti
2002/03 FC Barcelona Levski Sofia
Club Brugge
2003/04 Anderlecht Lokomotiv Moscow
Dinamo Zagreb
2004/05 Real Madrid Club Brugge
Trabzonspor

If you bring in mind that Polish clubs eliminated the following top-league clubs in UEFA cup in last two years: Man City, Hertha BSC, AC Parma, Schalke 04 you will understand that Wisła, Legia, Amica, Lech or Groclin are just on their way to CL.

Author: mark
Date: 10-08-2004, 11:12

Welcome to our pre-game show, in which you will get the latest information about the games and their possible influence on the 15th place battle.

The point caculation is based on the current position in UC R1 seeding, but suprises will change it so take it with a big grain of salt.

CL QR3
------

Wisla vs Real - If Wisla wins it is good news for football and bad news for the polish ranking as they will lose 2.5 predicted points (will make 7.5 instead of 10)

Inter vs Basel - As in Wisla's case the swiss will lose 1 predicted point if Basel will suprise.

Red star vs PSV - If Red start will win they will get 1.5 more points then the prediction.

Rosenborg vs Haifa - If rosenborg wins they will make 7.5 points but if they lose they will make 16 (seeded all the way to and including UC round 3) and probably ensure norways place at the top 15. If Haifa lose they will make 4.5 poits, but if they win they will make 7.5. Will the israeli and norvegians be able to cooperate like the dens and swedish in euro 2004

?. Taking into acount the big boost norway will gain from eliminating Rosenborg, may Haifa should play to lose

.

Shakhtar vs Brugge - Like Haifa, if Shakhtar will win they will make extra 3 points.

Dinamo Kiev vs Trabzonspor - Like Rosenborg, Kiev can make 8.5 more points in UC.

PAOK vs Tel-Aviv
CSKA vs Ranger - No brainers. All this unseeded teams are unseeded also in UC R1, so a suprise here will be graet for the ranking of their countries by adding 6 more points.

UC QR2
------

HEAD TO HEAD
-------------

Grozny vs Lech - Grozny can add 2 points for russia on the expanse of poland. Russia needs this suprise, for poland (for now) this is not critical.

Kazan vs Rapid - Very small chance of suprise here. There are 2 points for russia to win or Austria to lose.

Illichivets vs Austria - Very small chance of suprise here. There are 2 points for ukrain to win or Austria to lose.

Zenit vs Pasching - The two poins from this tie can equaly go to russia or Austria.

Bulgarian Clubs
---------------
Levski vs modrica - An (unlikely) suprise by the bosnians will cost bulgaria 7.5 points.

Zeljeznicar vs Lovech - A suprise is possible, costing bulgaria 2 points.

CSKA vs Omonia - May cost bulgaria 2 points, but a suprise is unlikely.

Israeli Clubs
-------------

Sakhnin vs Tirana - A suprise (quite possible) will cost Israel 2 points.

Petah-Tikva vs Larnaca - An unlikely suprise will cost Israel 2 points.

Serbian Clubs
-------------
Zeleznik Belgrade vs Steaua Bucuresti
Buducnost vs Maribor - Both ties have a posibility of suprise each costing S&M 2 point .

Partizan vs otelul - A suprise here will cost S&M 5 points.

Croatian clubs
--------------

Rijeka vs Gençlerbirligi - A suprise is very unlikely, but croatia needs the extra 2 points.

Primorje vs Dinamo - A must win for Croatia. Lose and 8 points will go away.

Swiss Clubs
-----------

Wil vs Bystrica - I have my money on the slovaks, and that the swiss will lose 2 points.

Servette vs Újpest - Due to Servette's bad performance in the swiss league I will bet that switzerland will lose 6.5 points.

Ukrain Clubs
------------

Dnipro vs Petrzalka - The ukrains can sleep easy with this game, their 2 points are probably secured.

Metalurg vs Tiraspol - It looks like Ukrain will keep its 2 points, but it is hard to tell.

Polish Clubs
------------

Legia vs Tbilisi - Unlikely lose of Legia will cost poland 6.5 points.

Amica vs Kispest - Unlikely lose of Legia will cost poland 2 points.

Norvigian Clubs
---------------

Odd vs Ekranas
Bodř/Glimt vs Tallinn - Atm both ties norway can lose 2 points, but it is unlikely.

Stabćk vs Haka - Norway will lose 2 points at this tie.

Author: SHEV
Date: 10-08-2004, 11:14

Yeah couldn't disagree but you talking about increasing, decreasing chances for Poland to have a CL participation. In reality Poland cannot use full advantages of 15-th place and get 2 teams in CL. It's another situation for Ukraine that always have at least one CL team. Main goal for Ukraine is to have 2 teams in CL and if we will not take 15-th place we lose all chances for achieving our goal not just decrease them. So I think 15-th place is more important for Ukraine then for other countries involved in a battle. For now by the bookmakers Ukraine has a 30% chance to achieve their goal of two teams while Poland has only 9% of one team.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: SHEV Date: 10-08-2004, 11:19	My last was to Adam

Author: anita
Date: 10-08-2004, 11:40

Yes, mark, mostly agree with you. Even if there are three bonus points for reaching CL, this seasons UEFA-group stage give a lot of extra chances to gain points. I was really nervous before away match in Tiraspol for Rosenborg (like you mark were on behalf of M-Tel-aviv, I presume), but now it may be point advantages to be eliminated in CLQ3. But, but, it require that you qualify for UEFA group stage, and thats hardly walk-over.

If I could choose, I would have Rosenborg every other year in CL for the money and every other year in UEFA group stage for the points and ranking. But unfortunately it is not up to me

And I don't think Norway will fight for 15th place this year. Presume all the other Norwegian teams will be eliminated in Round 1, and that's too heavy for Rosenborg. You need more than one achieving team if you gonna take 15th.

Author: Adam(L)
Date: 10-08-2004, 12:34

Ok. I checked Ukrainian League final tables for the last five years and now I understand your point of view. In Ukraine there are 2 very good clubs which has not competitors in the U-league. Anyway, I steel believe that Polish club’s performance in third QR would be better then Ukrainien’s. If you compere UEFA Rank for Ukrainien and Polish second club (Shahtar and Legia), Legia is better. Even third club Amica is not much worse then Shahtar (you should know that Legia and Amica has played in European Competitions only 3 out of 5 last years). As far as percentages are concerned, what would it be if Shahtar drew Real and Dinamo Wisła? I think 50% for Wisła and 5% for both Ukrainien.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rosa Date: 10-08-2004, 14:23	In fact we (Poland) need 2 clubs in CLQ so much more then the rest of the pack. With our bad luck thats the only way to have some chance to get our team in group stage. PS Next year we propably draw Juventus or Barcelona

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Zuberbuler Date: 10-08-2004, 15:19	Guys i think it`s too early for any predictions.We should wait until 12.06.04 if we wanna be well-grounded

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: mark Date: 10-08-2004, 17:30	Oops, I have forgot Grazer and all the denish clubs. So lets make it quick. By suprising liverpool, Grazer may add 1.5 points to Austria. Brřndby vs Ventspils - Very unlikely suprise will cost denmark 9 points. AaB vs Zalgiris - A not impossible suprise may cost denmark 2 points.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: manecar Date: 11-08-2004, 13:23	Banatski dvor is out for sure. I hope at least Zeleznik can win in Belgrade tomorrow.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: colo Date: 11-08-2004, 13:49	After maccabi's away win in greece it looks good for israel, as they should qualify and recieve the bonus points. the ukranien's have a good chance of getting a mass of points if dinamo kiev trully lose their tie against the turks because they are favourits to qualify to the UC group stage.

Author: mark
Date: 12-08-2004, 12:16

only two day and already four almost irreversible suprises, Tel-Aviv and Shakhtar winning and Kiev and Buducnost losing. It changes the forcast of the standing in the end of the season to this:

13 Poland 24.5 (wisla is not seeded in UC round 3)
14 Ukraine 23.270 (Kiev is seeded in UC round 3)
15 Switzerland 22.875 (basel is not seeded in UC round 3)
--------------------------------------
16 Israel 22.874 -0.5
17 Norway 20.950 -8
18 Austria 20.125 -11
19 Serbia-Montenegro 20.124 -11
20 Denmark 20.033 -8.5 (bronbdy is not seeded in UC round 3)
21 Bulgaria 19.165 -15
22 Croatia 18.791 -12.5 (Zagreb is not seeded in UC round 3)
23 Russia 17.791 -20

By this prediction only Norway and Denmark have a reasonable chance to catch Israel and Switzerland for the fight on the 15th place. I guess there will be many people around europe hoping that kiev will qualify to the CL

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rosa Date: 12-08-2004, 22:22	It looks like Polad, Russia , Austria and Ukraine will all loose one team in the third round and all of this because of this stupid idea of regional seeding.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: aydinfatih Date: 12-08-2004, 22:31	dinamo will qualify champions league if trabzonspor make a foolish performance in trabzon. altuogh it is name is not knowed in europe they have very remarkable players, like gokdeniz karadeniz ,ibrahim yattara..

Author: anita
Date: 12-08-2004, 22:59

So far five countries with no loss of points: (Amount of matches in brackets)

Portugal(1)
England (2)
Germany (1)
France (1)
Norway (6)

Yes, I know Norwegian teams had four home matches this round, but full pot is full pot, and with six points (1,500 points) we are ahead of Serbia and Austria. Austria and Switzerland may be in for another catastrophical year. Just getting 8.5 respectively 9.0 points last year.

So it seems Poland and Israel will take 13 and 14th place, and Ukraine (so far) favorite for 15th.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: mark Date: 12-08-2004, 23:11	Anita can you please explain why you don't agree with my prediction system. I know it is crude, but you realy don't offer anything to replace it. If Kiev is out of CL, I find it hard to see what will stop ukrain at the 15 place, unless Kiev sucks big time this year, which I find hard to believe.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: anita Date: 12-08-2004, 23:34	I dont disagree, mark. Predictions are predictions, but I can hardly see that Switzerland will pass Israel. Israel is 2.5 points ahead of Switzerland with 3 bonus points almost in pocket for Tel-aviv, and probably Servette and Wil out of it in UCQR2. So if Basel is gonna take all the points needed to get a 15th place, well, good luck.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rx Date: 12-08-2004, 23:49	mark I think your system is just a waste of time :D

Author: Zuberbuler
Date: 13-08-2004, 00:58

Guys,guys,guys,why you don`t listen to me?I will quote myself:

“I`m tired so at the end i`ll say that:
Switzerland and Austria are out of the battle
Ukraine will take 15-th place may be something more
Serbia,Norway,Bulgaria and Denmark will try to do something but at the end of the year the places will be almost the same.
AND don`t forget Russia.100% Russia will be between 13-15 place.
THAT`S MY OPINION FOR THE 15-TH PLACE BATTLE !!!”
About Russia i mean after 2 years
And it was two weeks ago!Am I right

You can call me The Oracle

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Rx Date: 13-08-2004, 01:13	Switzerland will be at place 21 after the end of this season. Inside info :D

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Emperor Date: 13-08-2004, 01:22	Poland can lost one team in UC qr . That team is Lech Poznan. However they can win in Poznan and qulify for UC because they weren't worse than Terek in Moscow(1-0 for Terek in 90min). The most fair result was 0-0(btw. like in match Tbilisi-Legia(1-0 for Legia). Amica should easy win in Hungary after victory 1-0 in Poland( thanks to Ukrainian referees for a buetiful work :[ )

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: ss5dgf4sf4 Date: 13-08-2004, 09:02	13 Poland 14 Ukraine 15 Norway

Author: Ricardo
Date: 13-08-2004, 09:13

Looking at this week, we saw that Sweden did good, but they are too far away from 15th spot, but Johansson can be satisfied that his regional grouping is helping and that Sweden does their best too.
Actually I wanted to say that Norway did great this week, winning all their games, collecting a full point! Togehter with the good performing Ukrainian teams they are on the edge of cathing bad performing Switzerland. Serbia&Montenegro and Austria fall back too.

Bulgaria and Russia stay in track but stay on a little distance. My prediction:
13 Poland
14 Ukraine
15 Israel
16 Norway

Author: artml
Date: 13-08-2004, 09:14

Swiss away! And I hope Austria too...
Ilike Serbia, but they have only two fine teams. And if compare with Norway or Ukraine - they have less chances.
Forger about Russia! This season they`ll have a 19-battle with Bulgaria, Croatia and Denmark. No more.
Poland and Israel... They are on top now, but Poland will not have a CL team and I think that all our "13-brothers" will loose at least one team. Maybe except Norway (great thx to Johansson ad his regional system) and Ukraine (I hope. thx Johansson again.)

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: SHEV Date: 13-08-2004, 09:16	Emperor, be reasonable =) Come down from heavens =) Lech was never had big chance of getting to groups as they are unseeded in UCR1 and they are not very powerful team. It's very questionable with Amica cause they are seems to be unseeded in UCR1 also after first mmatches results.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Nefi Date: 13-08-2004, 09:21	My opinion 13 Israel 14 Ukraine 15 Poland

Author: Adam(L)
Date: 13-08-2004, 09:49

Shav, you may be wrong. Although I’m Legia supporter and I hate Lech, I must say that they have quite a good team. They had very good performance during spring, they beat Legia in Polish cup final and Wisła in super-cup as well as Grodzisk in league on Grodzisk field. Do you remember Grodzisk eliminated Hertha and Man City last year, so they can make a surprise. In my opinion seeding in first round is not very important because there will be many good teams not seeded (e.g CSKA if eliminated) as well as weak teams seeding (e.g. Alemania – 2 Bundesliga team or Utrech beaten by Legia two years ago 4-1 and 3-1).

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: artml Date: 13-08-2004, 09:57	My opinion: 13. Norway 14. Ukraine 15. Poland or Israel - we`ll see after finishing the QR`s

Author: Emperor
Date: 13-08-2004, 11:08

Shev the score doesn't say everything about game. Honved didn't exist on pitch. If not referres mistakes Amica would have won 4-0. Amica unseeded? I don't see any problem. In last 5 years Amica plyed 3 times in UC 1r and always was unseeded but they qualified for 2 round all 3 times. Lech shouldn't have lost this match because the most fair result was 0-0. But they have a match in Poznan where they will do everything to win( Lech best scorer will be back)

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Adam(L) Date: 13-08-2004, 11:44	Emparor, I agree with your opinion about Amica's match but don't be sure about aggregated result. The second much may looks totally different. Do you remember the last Legia’s match with Panathinaikos or Wisła with Saragossa. After the first match nobody gave any chance for Legia and Wisła but at the end...

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: artml Date: 13-08-2004, 11:54	2 Adam - thinking this case you may say that Bayer, Monaco & Shakhtar aren`t in League yet. I`m not mean that Polish teams haven`t chances at all, but it looks less able for them. Of course, it`s only my personal opinion

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Adam(L) Date: 13-08-2004, 11:57	Newman, this year I bacame an adult, I think (I have 30). So, it was just silly mistake as you said. I had had my theory and I found 2 teams in Russian league ending with “a” not thinking about meaning. At the end I must say that probably your schools were better because I had learned Russian for 13 years.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Adam(L) Date: 13-08-2004, 12:10	Artml, you are right again but 1-0 is a really little advantage before away match.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Sheva_15 Date: 13-08-2004, 12:32	Hello from Blgaria.How are you.Yesterday was one very good daj for Bulgaria footbal.Litex had won than guest in Bosna 2-1 Jeliznichar.Levski 5-0 Modrica is also one very good score for us.In Tuesday CSKA started agaisnst Omonia in Nikozia 1-1. How do you tnik weather Bulgaria has chances for 15 place?

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: artml Date: 13-08-2004, 12:32	No doubts. Also like Illichivets - home 0-0 isn`t a bad result, ya? I hope very much that we`l win next match. Or 1-1. Or 2-2. Or 0-0 & penalty win. (or disqalification of Austria at last).

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: artml Date: 13-08-2004, 12:35	`bout Bulgaria - I think no. You are still back in this race and you already have lost one club. I think that there`ll be a 21-battle between Russia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Denmark.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Zuberbuler Date: 13-08-2004, 13:05	I think that the battle for 21 place will be between between Austria and Switzerland.This year will be a disaster for them.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Dneprchemp Date: 13-08-2004, 13:23	13. Poland 14. Norway 15. Ukraine my opinion Illitchivets - is out after this round Metallurg - go to group stage, or maybe farer if luck at Draw smiles to MD Dnipro - like MD Dynamo - like Dnipro Shaktar - 3-th place in group and go to UEFA CUP there 1/8 - minimum

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: artml Date: 13-08-2004, 13:23	Agree. But they`ll feel this disaster not this year bul a bit later. Now Switzerland and Austria are members of 13-race and very active members (especially Austria). Well, if look to the coeff. tacle we may say that Israel will have some problems too - `cause all these countries haven`t stable coefficient value.

Author: Zuberbuler
Date: 13-08-2004, 16:38

artml,
i completely disagree with you

Austria is OUT of battle,because 1.Grazer will lose 2 times from Liverpool and may be will go out after uefa 1 round
2.Rapid lose from Rubin Kazan 0-2 and are out of the tournament
3.Pasching :i think that you don`t expect very good performance from Pasching
So i think that Austria will take max 2 points this season and it will be 21 place for them i think.Austria is in 19 place at this moment

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: artml Date: 13-08-2004, 17:07	I`ve meant a little another thing... Well, I expect Pashing`s defeat - but 3-1 is good result, ya? I haven`t yet statistics (see topic), but I think there will be ~85% that Pashing will go further. Nothing is clear with Austria Rubin, ya - but they also can lose some pts... And for Grazer - I think, it`ll play in CU group. But I wish to mistake.

Author: maymunata
Date: 13-08-2004, 20:18

To Dneprchemp.
If all your predictions happen than Ukraine will be a contender for the 12th place, not the 15th. But lets see. Shakhtar with Real, Milan and Ajax - 2 points max

, Lazio - Dnepr - 1 point max

, Feyenord - Metalurh - 1 point max

, and Dynamo - CSKA Moscow - no groups for them either. And a whole year Ukraine will watch eurofootball on the television.

So if you have an unseeded teams, don't say that they surely will go to the groups. The draw will be crucial for the 15th place battle. (I think that Ukraine WILL BE in top 15, but they don't need 3 teams in Groups or two quarterfinalist to achieve that).

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: SHEV Date: 13-08-2004, 21:14	I absolutely agree with maymunata.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Nick Date: 13-08-2004, 21:45	Actually the fight for the 15-th and 21-st place will be decided very much by the draw for UCR1. There are some quite weak seeded teams and some quite strong unseeded teams so it will be a matter of luck to some extent. Let's pray for our teams

Author: Dneprchemp
Date: 13-08-2004, 23:54

2 maymunatam, I agree with you, but it was maximum that Ukrainian team can do at this season! If Draw results good for Ukraine my opinion is right, but if we get Milan, Ajax, Lazio, etc my opinion isn't right. But it can be with each club of each country, for exemple Rosenborg also can get serious opponents at group stage or other Norway's team. Let stop at the middle:

Illichivets - is out
Dnipro or Metallurg - go to group stage (one of them)
Dynamo - goes to group stage (80%)
Shahtar - 3-th place in Group stage and lose at 1/16 UC

I think it's very possible and nevertheless on it Ukraine will get many point's at this season...

All is IMHO

Author: Emperor
Date: 14-08-2004, 01:11

So I will also predict futer...

Wisla - at least 4th round or quarterfinalin UC. Many depends on Szymkowiak and Zurawski future in Wisla( very possible that they will leave wisla in winter. Spanish newspaper give Zurawski a mark - 3, like Morientes and Roberto Carlos with a little note -... "What does he do in that club?")BTW. Our coach says that Wisla is going to win in Madrit so maybe Wisla in CL

?

Legia - they are seeded but they are the weakest Polish team in UC this year, if they have luck in 1st round they will end their game in group stage

Amica - rather unseeded but they should go to group stage and then if they are lucky, they can get 3rd place and go to 4th round

Lech - I hope they beat Terek in Poznan because in Moskwa they had a litle advantage. In 1st round UC( If they are there)they will 100% lose.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: artml Date: 14-08-2004, 08:51	Maybe let`s just watch fotball? maymunata - Milan&Real both in group? Hmmm... And Ajax now is a bit weaker than in 1995 - see last year results. At last, Dynamo isn`t out CL yet. I repeat - let`s wait. After two weeks it`ll be clear.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Emperor Date: 14-08-2004, 11:12	I made some mistakes . Ofcourse in Amica I wanted to say 3rd round. I thought 3rd round is in this year so in case of Wisla it will be 3r/4th if we lose zurawski and szymkowiak and 4th/quarterfinal if we don't lose them.

Author: anita
Date: 14-08-2004, 11:19

Seems there are some confidence on this topic that Norway may be in the battle for 15th place. I didn't think so when EC started, but looking at the opponents embarrassing themselves, seems as Norway not will lose too many places. Remember that Norway had a very surprisingly positive season last year.

And talking about chances of going to CL or not and the point advantage of going to UC group stage instead, thats not a bankers even if you are seeded in Round 1. E.g. Rosenborg may get more points in UC group stage, but if eliminated in CLQR3, they may just as well be eliminated in UC Round 1

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: maymunata Date: 14-08-2004, 13:07	Looking at the UEFA Country Ranking history (since 1979) and Bulgaria's position through the years (21,20,17,17,18,18,17,21,22,23,23,20,22,23,20,20,31,32,33,33,32,29,28,25,21,20) the 15th place will be a rekord. The 20-21th place match us perfectly.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: anita Date: 14-08-2004, 18:16	Maymunata, I think this year may be important for Bulgaria. Don't think they stand a chance for 15th place this year, but if you look at Berts Database, Country ranking 2006, i.e. next year when season 00/01 is stricken, you are on 17th place, 0.460 points behind 15th. So keep on picking points this year and next year, and you will have two teams in CLQ in 2007-08.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Zuberbuler Date: 14-08-2004, 19:08	And after that?This year Bulgaria have 4 teams instead 3 and Lokomotiv crashed.In Bulgaria there is 3 teams that can play against strong teams-Levski,Litex and CSKA.The only advantage is that we will have a chance to enter in ChLeague but the coefficient will go down if we have more than 3 teams

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: SHEV Date: 15-08-2004, 02:07	Do Bulgaria really need 2 teams in CL? Give them 10 there - the result will be the same.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Nick Date: 15-08-2004, 16:39	@SHEV: He, he..You are right. But if we had 10 teams 1 of them would have played against PAOK and would be in CL now

Author: anita
Date: 18-08-2004, 14:50

Seems mark may be right in his predictions. Just for fun I put up following probable list after the matches next week:

Israel - 21.374
Haifa (1+3 bonus points), Tel-Aviv (0,5+3 bonus points),Sakhnin (0,5),Petach (1 and out of UC)

Poland - 20.125
Wisla (0), Amica(0,5),Legia(1),Lech(1)

Switzerland - 19.125
Basel (0,5), Servette (1), Wil (1 and out of UC)

Ukraine - 18.650
DKiev (0,5),Metalhurs (0,5),Dnipro (1), Shaktor (0), Illicivets (0 and out of UC)

Norway - 18.450
Rosenborg (0),Odd (0,5),BodoGlimt(0,5),Stabaek (0)

Austria - 18.125
GAK (0),Austria (1), Pasching (0 and out of UC), Rapid (1 and out of UC)

Serbia -
Crvena Zvezda (0),Partizan (1), Zeleznik (0 and out of UC), Buducnost (0,5 and out of UC)

Bulgaria - 17.415
Levski (0,5), Litex (1), CSKA(1)

Denmark - 17.199
Brondby (1), AaB (1)

Russia - 17.041
Rubin (0), Zenith (1), CSKA (0), Terek (0 and out of UC)

Croatia - 15.958
Dinamo (0), Rijeka (0,5 and out of UC)

Giving following list:

Israel (3/4) - 0 points
Poland ((4/4) - 4.9 points
Switzerland (2/4) - 8.9 p
Norway (4/4) - 11.7 p
Denmark (2/3) - 12.5 p
Austria (2/4) - 12.9 p
Serbia (2/4) - 13.0 p
Ukraine (4/5) - 13.6 p
Bulgaria (3/4) - 15.8 p
Russia (3/4) - 17.3 p
Croatia (1/3) - 16.2 points

Explanation (Poland): (4/4) meaning four out of four teams still in EC. "4.9 points" meaning that they must have 4.9 points more than Israel to overcome Israel (two for win and one for draw). So the Israelis may (almost) secure their place among the 15 with their (eventual) six bonus points.

Yes, I know Rosenborg may qualify, but my natural pessimism and modesty forbid me such thoughts. And still think Basel may go to CL.

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: SHEV Date: 18-08-2004, 15:21	Shakhtar out of CL? Lol It will be 90-10 by the bookmakers Of course miracles happen, but Shakhtar is there by default You could became extremely rich beting on that prediction

Re: battle for the 15 place - take two
Author: Adam(L) Date: 18-08-2004, 15:30	Anita, I know that I'm starting another worthless and boring linguistic discussion here but why Grenland is “odd”?

Author: anita
Date: 18-08-2004, 15:59

Ooops, shev, my fault. I had them in there, but forgot to give them and Ukraine bonus points, giving Ukraine 19.250 points and ahead of Switzerland. May prove vital for the 15th place. Mea culpa.

Adam. Odd means the sharp tip of the spear in old Nordic language (Vikings). Grenland, the land of the "grens" (some tribe from pre-viking time). Actually Rosenborg called themselves Odd when founded in 1917, but had to change their name because Odd from the town Skien in Grenland had taken it first (1885).