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Author: SHEV
Date: 16-07-2004, 19:48

Quite an interesting subject to be discussed. Where can end up teams that is close to seed/unseed border in UEFA cup R1. Look for Ukraine:

Shakhtar has 9 to 14 teams with lower rating in CLQ3 depending on results of CLQ2. Shakhtar is 4 places away from being unseeded in UCR1 if everything goes by the rating. That means each surprise with that teams in CLQ3 put him lower by one place. So we have 5 to 9 ties that can dissapoint Donetsk. It is very unlikely to be 5 ties - most chances for 9, some for 8, if anything extraordinary will not happen. Why 5? Because each unseeded team that plays team with higher rating then Shakhtar in CLQ2(there 5 such teams) can change the number of feared by Shakhtar ties. 2 of them will be unseeded in Q3 and if they lose - Shakhtar will go up in seedings of UCR1. 3 will be seeded in Q3 and if they will be drawn with teams with higher ranking then Shakhtar and they'll lose then Shakhtar will go up too, if drawn with lower seeds then number of pairs that need to be paid attention is lower but these situation has little chances so let it be 9.

Subject has another side - every surprise with higher seeded teams in UCQ2 put Shakhtar up. And what a coincidence - there 9 of them too.

So what we have - if surprises with certain teams(9) in CLQ3 beats surprises with certain teams(9) in UCQ2 by 4 and more then Shakhtar go to unseeded, if by 3 and less - stay seeded. Surprises are called surprises because they must be rare so it will be very unusuall if score will be like 5-1 or 4-0. More likely like it will be 2-1 or 1-2 or maybe little more. So my vote is for seeded =))

Now for Dnipro - almost the same, but they are 4 places out of seedings. 8 teams in CLQ3 lower seeded, 5 teams in CLQ2 higher seeded. It means 3 to 8 feared ties in CLQ3 with special nice situations I wrote above. So it is most chances for 8.

11 teams in UCQ2 with higher rating - so it means 11 chances for surprise.

At the end we have 11 to 8. And we need surprises of 11 to beat 8 by 4 or more. Seriously doubt it but there is chances.

Hope it is not very complicated =)) You can predict in such way for your teams =)

Author: maymunata
Date: 16-07-2004, 23:25

My lovely CSKA Sofia is 45th in the seeding list fot UCR1. So the reds need 5 out of 20 teams, that have better coefficient, to go out early. Those 20 are: 3 UIC winners (very little chance even one team, with lower than 15.6 coeff., to win Intertoto), 10 from UCQ3 (I hope 2-3 could be surprisingly beaten), and 7 from CLQ2 (4 that will be unseeded in CLQ3 and 3 seeded, so there's a posibility of a total 7 more teams with {15.6 to lose in CLQ3 and join UCR1). So generally the chances aren't so good, although we need just 5 teames to go out. Champion Loko Plovdiv could do precious work if he eliminate Club Brugge in CLQ2. This match is the most important for the bulgarian football future - it's all or nothing.

Re: UCR1 edge seeds.
Author: cattle_ripper Date: 17-07-2004, 18:39	Isn't the rule for UEFA cup the same as for CL, if an unseeded team beats a seeded one, it takes its higher coefficient an participates with it in the draw for the next round?

Re: UCR1 edge seeds.
Author: cezh Date: 17-07-2004, 21:24	Wow! Does this rule really exist in CL? Can someone confirm that, please? Thanks! Cezh

Re: UCR1 edge seeds.
Author: anita Date: 17-07-2004, 21:55	In UEFA-cup it's not like that, but in CLQ. Meaning that the opponents to the three teams that is seeded in CLQ3 (Sparta Praha, Rosenborg and Club Brügge), but has to play CLQ2 (first), will be seeded in CLQ3. I.e. APOEL Nicosia will be seeded in CLQ3 if beating Sparta Praha in CLQ2, Sherif Tiraspol if beating Rosenborg and Lok. Plovdiv if eliminating Brügge.

Re: UCR1 edge seeds.
Author: Forza-AZ Date: 18-07-2004, 12:24	The reason UEFA does that is because the draw for that round is made before the previous round is finished. And that's only the case in the CL QR's.