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Author: Tomer
Date: 08-09-2003, 12:46

see previous post at Germany 2006 and Euro 2008 qualification

the draw for Germany 2006 will be based on 8 groups of 6-7 teams each.
here is the updated ranking after Saturday's games:

	
        Team	        Coeff.	Games Left
*** pot 1 ***
1	Portugal **	38.4	0
2	1. France *	36	2
3	2. Sweden	35.5	2
4	10. Turkey	34.6	1
5	17. England	33	2
6	8. Italy	33	2
7	4. Czech Rep.	32	2
8	14. Netherlands	32	2

*** pot 2 ***
9	13. Denmark	31.1	2
10	6. Ireland	31.1	1
11	12. Croatia	31	2
12	3. Spain	31	2
13	18. Slovenia	29.3	2
14	5. Germany ***	29	2
15	7. Romania	29	1
16	27. Bulgaria	27.5	2
17	16. Poland	27.5	2
*** pot 3 ***
18	11. Russia	27.5	2
19	9. Belgium	27	2
20	20. Scotland	26	2
21	15. Yugoslavia	24	2
22	19. Ukraine	24	1
23	21. Austria	24	1
24	25. Switzerland	23.1	2
25	26. Iceland	23.1	1
*** pot 4 ***
26	29. Greece	22	1
27	28. Finland	21	1
28	23. Slovakia	20.4	2
29	24. Israel	20	2
30	30. Hungary	19	2
31	34. Wales	18.6	2
32	22. Norway	18.6	1
33	32. Bosnia	17	2
*** pot 5 ***
34	38. Georgia	17	2
35	33. Belarus	16	1
36	35. Estonia	14.2	1
37	36. Latvia	14	2
38	31. Cyprus	13.3	1
39	37. N.Ireland	12.4	2
40	39. Macedonia	10.6	1
41	40. Lithuania	9	2
*** pot 6 ***
42	41. Armenia	8	2
43	42. Moldova	8	2
44	43. Albania	8	1
45	45. Azerbaijan	8	1
46	44. Faroe Isl	7.1	1
47	46. Liechtenst.	1	2
48	47. San Marino	1	0
49	48. Malta	0.8	1
*** pot 7 ***
50	49. Luxembourg	0	2
51	50. Andorra	0	1
52	Kazakhstan	0	0


-) Germany is not drawn since it is the host.
-) Only 2002 results are counted for Portugal.
-) Only 2004 results are counted for France.
-) every team name is preceded by its' previous 2004 ranking.

Re: updated country ranking for Germany 2006
Author: nelster Date: 08-09-2003, 20:19	how many points for a win tomer? looks like Scotland need a lot of results to go their way!

Author: Tomer
Date: 09-09-2003, 10:11

it all described in the url I added.
However, points per win are depending for which team:
each real point worth the value of dividing 16 by the teams' number of games in the last 2 tournaments.
e.g. :
-) Israel will play 16 games (8 + 8) so 16 / 16 = 1
so, each real point worth 1 point here.
-) France will play only 8 games (no games in 2002 tournament) so 16/8 = 2. so, each point it will earn worth 2 points in here.
-) Sweden play 18 games (8+10) -> 16/18 = 0.888888 points per real point.

Therefore each team's points are calculated differently, but for most teams point worth ~0.9 - 1 points.
Another important issue is the number of games left. Teams with 2 games left might advance a little bit more than teams with 1 games left.

Regarding Scotland, I guess that 2 wins might do the trick to get to the 2nd pot, but it will be tough competition...

Re: updated country ranking for Germany 2006
Author: Kasper Date: 09-09-2003, 11:44	Where have you found these stats and how the points are earned

Author: Tomer
Date: 09-09-2003, 14:20

I maintain these stats myself & the way points are earned is exactly as described above & in the URL I put in the first line of the first message of the post.

Generally I normalize the points the teams earn in their preliminary tournaments games according to the #games they play where the maximum number of points a team can reach is 48 (which is 3 pts per game * (8 games + 8 games in the 2 latest tournaments)).

However, not all teams play 16 games, therefore the number of points possible per game is different per team depending on its' number of games (which actually varies from 8 (France), 10 (Portugal), 16 & 18 - where each point worth is 2, 1.6, 1, 0.88 respectively).

I already offered Bert to add these statictics to his site, but he wants to keep the site main topic on the teams and not on the national teams.

Re: updated country ranking for Germany 2006
Author: molosztash Date: 09-09-2003, 15:08	Tomer why don't you calculate the same list with average points calculated with tonly the games played... I mean for example divide Turkey's total points to matches played... (17 instead of 18)... It would be a more stable ranking I think... I'll try to do it...

Re: updated country ranking for Germany 2006
Author: Tomer Date: 09-09-2003, 15:25	I wanted to prepare a table that will reflect the real difference between the teams & I also have the averages table, but one can not really understand what a team need to climb in the table. When we have points it is more easily calculated & more clear just like a real table (with some complexity of the points, but it still is more easy so see what a team need in my opinion).

Author: molosztash
Date: 09-09-2003, 15:46

I did it:
It becomes like this...

Rank    Country         Old Co. MatLeft TotMat  NewCo

***Pot1***

1	1. France *	36	2	8	48,00
2	2. Sweden	35,5	2	18	39,94
3	Portugal **	38,4	0	10	38,40
4	17. England	33	2	16	37,71
5	8. Italy	33	2	16	37,71
6	10. Turkey	34,6	1	18	36,64
7	4. Czech Rep.	32	2	18	36,00
8	14. Netherlands	32	2	18	36,00

***Pot2***

9	12. Croatia	31	2	16	35,43
10	3. Spain	31	2	16	35,43
11	13. Denmark	31,1	2	18	34,99
12	5. Germany ***	29	2	16	33,14
13	18. Slovenia	29,3	2	18	32,96
14	6. Ireland	31,1	1	18	32,93
15	27. Bulgaria	27,5	2	18	30,94
16	16. Poland	27,5	2	18	30,94
17	11. Russia	27,5	2	18	30,94

***Pot3***

18	7. Romania	29	1	16	30,93
19	9. Belgium	27	2	16	30,86
20	20. Scotland	26	2	16	29,71
21	15. Yugoslavia	24	2	18	27,00
22	25. Switzerland	23,1	2	18	25,99
23	21. Austria	24	1	16	25,60
24	19. Ukraine	24	1	18	25,41
25	26. Iceland	23,1	1	18	24,46

***Pot4***

26	29. Greece	22	1	16	23,47
27	23. Slovakia	20,4	2	18	22,95
28	24. Israel	20	2	16	22,86
29	28. Finland	21	1	16	22,40
30	30. Hungary	19	2	16	21,71
31	34. Wales	18,6	2	18	20,93
32	22. Norway	18,6	1	18	19,69
33	32. Bosnia	17	2	16	19,43

***Pot5***

34	38. Georgia	17	2	16	19,43
35	33. Belarus	16	1	18	16,94
36	36. Latvia	14	2	16	16,00
37	35. Estonia	14,2	1	18	15,04
38	31. Cyprus	13,3	1	18	14,08
39	37. N.Ireland	12,4	2	18	13,95
40	39. Macedonia	10,6	1	18	11,22
41	40. Lithuania	9	2	16	10,29

***Pot6***

42	41. Armenia	8	2	16	9,14
43	42. Moldova	8	2	18	9,00
44	43. Albania	8	1	16	8,53
45	45. Azerbaijan	8	1	18	8,47
46	44. Faroe Isl	7,1	1	18	7,52
47	46. Liechtenst.	1	2	16	1,14
48	47. San Marino	1	0	16	1,00
49	48. Malta	0,8	1	18	0,85

***Pot7***

50	Kazakhstan	0	0	0	0,00
51	49. Luxembourg	0	2	18	0,00
52	50. Andorra	0	1	18	0,00

This table shows the (point/matches played)*16

Tomer, I hope I didn't bother you by posting this one, when I saw your reply I had just prepared this and just didn't want to waste...

Author: Tomer
Date: 09-09-2003, 16:01

Great work.
The problem I have with this representation is that here points can be decremented which is a bit strange when you look at an ordinary table & second thing, it is hard to explain how many points will a team have after a win / loss / draw & how far can a team reach or fall behind...
I had that kind of doubts before I created my table & decided to make it just like an ordinary table just because of those issues (even though in your table Israel is 1 place higher than in mine

Author: Tomer
Date: 11-09-2003, 10:18

Here is the latest update:

	Team	Min Coeff.Normalized	Games Left
1	1. France *	42	1
2	Portugal **	38.4	0
3	2. Sweden	38.2	1
4	17. England	36	1
5	4. Czech Rep	34.6	1
6	10. Turkey	34.6	1
7	8. Italy	34	1
8	3. Spain	34	1

9	14. Netherlands	32	1
10	5. Germany ***	32	1
11	13. Denmark	32	1
12	6.  Ireland	31.1	1
13	12. Croatia	31	1
14	27. Bulgaria	30.2	1
15	11. Russia	30.2	1
16	9. Belgium	30	1
17	7. Romania	30	0

18	18. Slovenia	29.3	1
19	16. Poland	27.5	1
20	20. Scotland	26	1
21	15. Yugoslavia	24.8	1
22	21. Austria	24	1
23	19. Ukraine	24	0
24	26. Iceland	23.1	1
25	25. Switzerland	23.1	1

26	29. Greece	22	1
27	28. Finland	22	0
28	23. Slovakia	21.3	1
29	24. Israel	21	1
30	32. Bosnia 	20	1
31	34. Wales	19.5	1
32	30. Hungary	19	1
33	22. Norway	18.6	1

34	36. Latvia	17	1
35	38. Georgia	17	1
36	33. Belarus	16	0
37	35. Estonia	14.2	1
38	31. Cyprus	13.3	1
39	37. N. Ireland	12.4	1
40	40. Lithuania	12	1
41	39. Macedonia	11.5	0

42	43. Albania	11	0
43	41. Armenia	10.6	1
44	42. Moldova	10.6	1
45	45. Azerbaijan	8	1
46	44. Faroe Isl.	7.1	0
47	48. Malta	1.7	0
48	46. Liechtens.	1	1
49	47. San Marino	1	0

50	49. Luxembourg	0	1
51	50. Andorra	0	0
52	Kazakhstan	0	0

It looks like the battle for the 1st pot is closed (Netherland only on 2nd pot!!)
Slovenia still has a chance to enter 2nd pot on behald of Romania.

There going to be a huge battle for the 3rd pot by several teams... This is goin to be the most interesting battle of all pots !!!

Battle for the 4th & 5th pot looks also closed.

What do you say ?

Author: porto-1978
Date: 11-09-2003, 19:39

Great job, Tomer! And nice help from molosztash, too!
I believe Slovenia may enter in Pot2 winning in Cyprus next month... Romenia is most likely to go down, having no more games to play.
Greece seems to have a chance of entering in Pot3, winning the next game, home with North Ireland. I don?t know if a greek victory can put Ukraine (with no more games to play) in Pot4. Anyway, Switzerland and Iceland need to win their games (or is a draw enough???) to maintain their positions in pot 3 (in case of a greek victory). Well, i believe Greece will win, Switzerland will draw or win and Iceland will lose or draw.
In the other pots I don?t believe that there will be any changes, even if that is mathematicaly possible.

A question: does the play off matches in November enter in the calculation of these ranking?

Author: Tomer
Date: 14-09-2003, 09:57

The playoff games will not count in here.

Regarding the complicated situation in the race for the 3rd pot we have 8 teams competing for 5 places (Finland can't make it):

21	15. Yugoslavia	24.8	1
22	21. Austria	24	1
23	19. Ukraine	24	0
24	26. Iceland	23.1	1
25	25. Switzerland	23.1	1

26	29. Greece	22	1
27	28. Finland	22	0
28	23. Slovakia	21.3	1
29	24. Israel	21	1

A draw for Iceland & Switzerland will provide them with 24 points.
A win for Slovakia & they're with 24 pts as well. If Israel will win & have 24 points as well), the situation will be (due to performance in the latest tournament):
1) Iceland
2) Switzerland
3) Israel
4) Ukraine
-) Slovakia
6) Austria
Assuming that Greece will win, it means that in this case, Yugoslavia, Greece, Iceland, Switzerland & Israel will get the to the 3rd pot. In case of Israel not winning (which is the most probable result), then we need to see how to decide between Ukraine & Slovakia.

Anyone knows ?

Re: updated country ranking for Germany 2006
Author: Ricardo Date: 15-09-2003, 15:11	Tomer, is it sure that Netherlands is in pot 2? If Turkey loose(not impossible against England, at least more probable than Spain, italy or Czech not winning) and Netherlands win, they both end up at 34.6 points, not? Who will be in pot 1 and who in 2??

Author: Tomer
Date: 15-09-2003, 16:00

Ricardo,
In case of Netherlands win, they will have the same number of points with Czech.
If Turkey lose vs. England it will also have the same #points.
In this case, both Netherlands & Czech will be ranked before Turkey (have more points in the latest tournament). However, the differentiation between Netherland & Czech will be according to total goal difference in both tournaments (as far as I recall...).
Currently Netherland lead by 1 goal over Czech !!! So, in case of Netherland win I guess they will pass Czech.

So, let me sum - if Netherland wins they will be in 1st pot no matter what are the other results...

Does someone know for sure what is the 2nd criteria after the average number op points in the 2 tournaments ?

Re: updated country ranking for Germany 2006
Author: Ricardo Date: 17-09-2003, 10:18	Tomer, ofcourse Spain, Italy, Turkey and/or Czech still have to loose for Netherlands to become in 1st group